When will the US and Israel attack Iran again???

The prediction of my Arab friend who is living in the US that there would be a successful US/Israeli attack on Iran within days, maybe hours, of last Friday has not yet come to pass.

As I told him, several US Arab allies and Netanyahu all asked Trump not to bomb Iran, yet, but my friend said that was just to keep the Iranians off guard, and, in any case, US policy does not depend on US Arab allies or Netanyahu, it is about repeating 1953 and getting our stolen oil back from the Iranians (and cutting off the PRC).

But I only talk with my Arab friend on Fridays, and I'm sure he'll tell me on Friday that the US overthrow of the Ayatollahs and installation of the (now, not so young) Shah will be very soon.

In fact, Israel wants time to upgrade their Iron Dome/David's Shield/Thaad/Arrow defense systems and replace all the munitions used defending Israel during the 12-Day War.

Of course, if one reads the mainstream US/UK/EU news, the Iranian attacks only killed 24 Israelis who were too slow in responding to the warning sirens and didn't bother going into the bomb shelters, and one missile (and only one) made it past the Israeli defences and killed 24 people who were outside where the missile landed. Israel suffered no other damage. And Trump easily and totally destroyed all Iranian nuclear bomb development, leaving them nothing except conventional weapons, but now they are building factories to build ballistic missiles, and these must all be totally destroyed, along with all the Ayatollahs, and the Shah must get his country and throne back (and the US must get all that stolen BP oil back). 

If one reads Iranian/Russian propaganda channels on Telegram (RT, PressTV), or watches the Judging Freedom channel on YouTube, the Iranian missiles did a lot of damage to Israel, and Iran only used their older missiles. Also, the Israeli defences did stop a lot of incoming Iranian missiles, but they used up almost all the ammunition needed for their air defence systems to operate, and need time for suppliers to manufacture and ship new ammunition. And, of course, Netanyahu asking Trump to delay the attack on Iran fits much better with this narrative than the narrative in the mainstream US/UK/EU media that my Arab friend assures me is 110% correct.

But Israel ordered replacement munitions last summer, and, sooner or later, their air defence systems will be fully restocked and upgraded with newer and more effective components, and then Netanyahu will tell Trump that it's time to finish the job in Iran, but that might be much later in 2026, or even 2027, because it will take quite some time to restock and upgrade Israel's air defence systems. We know the attack on Iran by the US and Israel is coming, but no one knows when, just that it won't be too soon.

*** 

Netanyahu's question, now, is whether to do the Big Thing: Nuke Iran!!! As best we know, Israel has about 100 (maybe more) nukes, and that could take out Iran so they would be unable to shoot back. It would also annoy the US, sort of, or the US might be very happy that Iran is gone and all the oil is radioactive so the PRC can't use it. The total oil from Venezuela and Iran is somewhere between 18% and 25% of the PRC's oil consumption, making a serious dent (but, of course, Russia and the PRC are working hard to move more and more Russian oil to the PRC).

So the US are certainly thinking, 'Maybe letting Netanyahu nuke Iran wouldn't be such a bad thing?'

If Netanyahu decides he can't wait, he has to go nuclear, that could happen almost any time. Not clear if he will coordinate on such a strike with the US, and not clear if the US would (or could) give an effective veto if he did.

So a conventional attack on Iran must wait months, maybe years, but a nuclear attack would be just as effective tomorrow as two years from now, with no chance of any Iranian response, and no one would dare nuke Israel if they nuked Iran. (Of course, Pakistan have already threatened to do just that, but the US and Israel don't speak much Urdu.)

Is the US about to destroy Iran and put a Shah as ruler, just like 1953???

An Arab friend sent me a bunch of screenshots of some Flight Radar or Flight Aware displays of all the aircraft in the air over Qatar, and then showed another screenshot of one of those Qatari planes flying near San Diego, CA and said this shows the US will destroy the Ayatollah regime in Iran and put in the Shah in a day or two. He also had a screenshot showing a US military refueling plane over Iraq, and an unidentified flying object (information blacked out by whoever sent it) flying over the Gulf with Two Names that lies between Qatar and Iran, and said this was an armed drone of some kind. I asked, 'Predator?' and he said, 'No, but I can't say any more.'

He said Iran are very weak, the entire Army will desert as soon as the first American bombs start falling, then something like the Venezuela raid, but taking out the government, not abducting it, and most of the Iranian people will gleefully welcome the return of a Shah.

I noted that those same sources say Russia are losing badly in the Ukraine, that Russia have no supply lines, so the Russian soldiers in the Ukraine have nothing to eat but their dead comrades, killed by the advanced NATO weapons that the Ukrainians are using to demolish the Russian army which only have old Soviet weapons from WWII, patched together with washing machine parts. Since he is Orthodox, he says those sources are obviously wrong, and no one believes them, but the sources reporting that Iran are on the verge of defeat are obviously correct.

I tried to point out that his two distinct sources, one completely reliable and the other completely unreliable are, in fact, the same source: basically, the mainstream media in the US/UK/EU all say that Iran are very weak, a US/Israeli attack will kill all the Ayatollahs and do a repeat of 1953 when the US gaoled Mossadegh for stealing British oil and installed the Shah, who promised that all the oil in Iran belongs to BP, with half the profits going to the UK and half to the US and none to Iran; they all also say that Russia are very weak, most of the Russian army have been destroyed, and the Ukrainians are winning easily. He  replied that I obviously don't know anything, anyone can just look at the pictures he sent me and Iran's immediate return to the Shah is obviously just a few days, maybe just a few hours away, while Russia's victory is obvious and probably very soon.

 I have not seen a single mainstream media source that does not agree that Iran were badly damaged in the 12 day war, and will quickly and totally lose the next war, and that Russia is only a few months from total defeat and having to accept being broken up and paying all their energy and mineral resources as war reparations.

On social media, one can find anything, from more extreme, more graphic versions of what the mainstream media are saying (but with poorer production values), or a complete denial of what the mainstream media are saying.

It was an interesting Friday night chat. I can't say that I learned anything, except that reading two stories from the same source, he figures they are either two completely different sources, or one source that have some accurate reporters and some totally inaccurate reporters.

Tucker believes Russian propaganda

Most in the West know the only reliable sources for news are the mainstream Western news media: they get all their news from the CIA, MI6, and Mossad, the three best intelligence forces in the world, so they know what is really going on, and one can find all this out from the mainstream Western news media.

But Tucker believes the Russian propaganda that Russia are a strong country, when the reliable mainstream media all say that the Russian military, armed with only obsolete Soviet WWII materiel, patched together with washing machine parts, were and are easily destroyed by the Ukrainians armed with the latest, most advanced NATO weaponry. The Ukrainians have killed more than 5 million Russian soldiers, who have no supply lines, so the only food they have are the dead bodies of Russian soldiers killed by the Ukrainians, and the western mainstream media got this by interviewing Russian soldiers. Or at least by listening to Ukrainian sources who interviewed those surviving Russian soldiers who had to eat their dead comrades to survive.

The Russians have only killed about 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers, so the Ukrainian military are at full strength, and growing rapidly as young Ukrainian men rush to join the military and keep the Russians out of the Ukraine, while the Russians have killed more than a million Ukrainians, but almost all were civilians murdered in undefended villages.

But the Russian military are very close to complete collapse, and the Russian economy has the Russians at home starving with no food and no clothes, since they bought all their food and clothes from the West until the West stopped selling to Russia.

But Tucker does not believe any of the Western mainstream media, only Russian propaganda, so he says that if the US force Russian and the PRC into an alliance, there is no way the US can win.

***

In fact, Trump does obviously deserve the World Peace Prize. I fear the one in Norway went to a woman who begged the world to invade her own country, kill most of the people, make her Leader, and then she promised to reward those who did this with all the oil in Venezuela. Clearly, a woman who knows what peace means and how to achieve it.

But in the case of Trump, first one must know of the enmity among India, the USSR/Russia, and the PRC.

First, just about all International Boundaries were drawn by the Brits and the French. The PRC figured their boundary with the USSR was much too far to the south, and their boundary with India was much too far to the east. India got along with the USSR, but figured their boundary with the PRC was much too far to the West. The USSR got along with India, but figured their boundary with the PRC was much too far to the North. So the USSR and the PRC were at war over their boundary, and India and the PRC were at war over their boundary.

But Trump the peacemaker made it possible for me to see Modi, Xi, and Putin hugging each other on 2 Sept 2025 at a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting. No one believed this could possibly be done.

Of course, the people in charge of the Nobel Peace Prize figure this easily disqualifies Trump, since the way to win the Nobel Peace Prize is to start the very best war, since they knew Nobel was a major supplier of arms to the world's militaries, and figure the best way to achieve peace is to win a lot of wars. So I figure Trump's successes at actually bringing peace totally disqualify Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

But if there really was a prize for bringing peace to the world, Trump deserves it for what I saw on 2 Sept 2025.

*** 

It's a good thing Tucker wasn't watching PRC TV on 2 Sept 2025, or, based on his conviction that if Russia and the PRC and India are allied, the US is toast, he'd know it's time for the butter knife.

Trump talks to the New York Times

 The New York Times asked Trump about international law, and the New York Times reported that Trump said he always follows international law, and there is one and only one International Law: whatever the strongest wants, the strongest gets.

So all the oil and other valuable resources in Venezuela belong to the US.

Russian ships and PRC ships that violate US sanctions will be seized and sold, with all the proceeds going to the US government.

Russia have threatened that Russian submarines can take out any US Navy ships that try to seize a Russian ship, but, so far, Russia have let the US seize at least one Russian ship and take it to the US for sale.

The US have also seized a PRC ship with a huge amount of Venezuelan oil destined for the PRC; so far, the PRC haven't said anything or done anything about this. 

The PRC get about 5% of their oil from Venezuela, but a lot of Russian oil that was formerly sold to the EU is being diverted to the PRC, so the PRC might be able to do without any Venezuelan oil. The US plan to make Iranian oil unavailable to the PRC in the very near future. As of now, more than 13% of oil purchased by the PRC is from Iran, and the PRC have invested a lot in Iran.

And, as Trump said, the US is strong enough that all the Iranian oil belongs to the US, and the US will either take it all or let Israel destroy it all. Not clear what the PRC will do if the US manage to cut off 18% of all their oil.

It is looking like the EU are toast. Their economy depended on cheap Russian energy. The plan, of course, was to destroy Russia so ownership of all that energy would return to the rightful owners: Western Europe and the US. Russia have absolutely no right to the oil that just happens to lie under Russia, they owe every drop to the US and Western Europe as war reparations. And, as Trump said, the US are strong enough to take it. After all, MI6 and the CIA managed to destroy about 1/3 of the Russian nuclear arsenal, and should easily be able to destroy the other 2/3, maybe with a little help from Mossad. Russia were totally unable to protect that first 1/3 of their nuclear arsenal, and the West are sure MI6 and the CIA can easily destroy all the rest, probably with a little help from Mossad.

But, after the US get control of the oil, it's not clear they'll let Europe have it at a price that makes it possible for Western Europe to return to being the major manufacturing power that they were before they switched from cheap Russian energy to very expensive American energy that makes it impossible for Europe to produce at a price that people can afford to buy. 

But Trump figures it's best if all the energy and minerals in Russia go to the US, then get sold at astronomical prices, keeping Europe poor and weak, and leaving Russia non-existent, all of Russia being taken by the US as war reparations, and made into a bunch of small, demilitarised countries unable to defend themselves or claim any of the energy or minerals that really belong to the US.

That seems to be the plan.

The question is: Could anything possibly go wrong? The Soviets could never get the best of Bond when Fleming had him as a 00 agent working for MI6, so the UK, or at least MI6 are sure that they can get all this done, and Trump is sure the US can manage, and if MI6 help, their help will be accepted and rewarded.

The Russians can see this coming, and say they can stop it. The PRC are quiet, and don't seem to be saying much in English, and I have no idea what they're saying in Chinese. But I suspect the PRC feel about the same as the Russians.

So very interesting times ahead. I seem to vaguely remember something about 'interesting times,'  but I can't remember what it was.

Venezuela?

Russia provided Iran and Venezuela with many weapons.

The US demanded that Iran negotiate, Iran agreed, and, while Iran figured they were safe while negotiating with the US, Israel first, and then the US attacked Iran.

Israel had many Iranians telling Mossad, the CIA, and MI6 almost everything they needed to know: the initial Israeli attack killed most Iranian generals and Nuclear Science Professors in their homes, which were known to Israel, and also destroyed the Iranian air defence system with an EMP attack, so they knew exactly where the computers that controlled the Iranian air defences were located.

But Russians got the Iranian air defence system working again in less than 24 hours, so the second Israeli strike didn't go nearly as well as planned. And the Iranian response? Reported as totally ineffective by all the Israeli/US/UK/EU reporters, and totally effective by all the Iranian and Russian reporters. (So not clear at all what really happened.)

If the Iranian/Russian version is to be believed, after the damage from the initial strike was repaired (by naming new generals and having Russia repair the air defence system), the Iranians did massive damage to Israel and the US military base in Qatar. 

If the US/Israeli version is to be believed, the US/Israeli attack completely destroyed the Iranian nuclear bomb development programme (which Iran lie did not exist), with no damage to Israel or the US base in Qatar, so now Iran can never again threaten Israel or US assets in West Asia.

***

But what about Venezuela?

It is obvious that all the Russian air-defence systems in Venezuela were easily destroyed by the US, who were then able to land dozens of helicopters full of US military, who were able to capture former president Maduro and bring him to the US, where he is now an accused (and soon to convicted) narco-terrorist, and his wife, who will be accused and convicted of the same crimes.

Net??? a) Russian air-defenses are useless against the US military, who could easily arrest Putin and Xi as narco-terrorist war criminals whenever they want, using exactly the same method they used to arrest President Maduro and his wife; or b) Venezuelan have a lot of CIA/MI6/Mossad agents who paid corrupt Venezuelans to give them all the details of where the Russian anti-aircraft systems were located, so the US could easily destroy all those systems, and also told the US where Maduro and his wife were hiding, so dozens of US helicopters could drop a huge force to kill all Maduro's Cuban guards and arrest Maduro and his wife.

***

So, at this point, if one believes the US/UK/EU version of events, the US could very easily arrest Putin and Xi for war crimes and make the government in Taipei the legitimate government of all China and some good Aryan in the Ukraine the legitimate ruler of Russia, after which, all that oil and gas that Russia have been stealing from the US will return to 100% US ownership, along with all the uranium and other minerals those Russians have been stealing from the US.

Or, if one believes Russia/PRC propaganda, the US are losing in the Ukraine, which will soon be divided into a Russian part and an Aryan part, and the Aryan part will be much smaller than the former Ukraine, and too weak to threaten Russia.

Venezuela remains a question, since it is in the Monroe Doctrine area, close to the US and all the US weapons systems and very far from Russia and the PRC. President Trump has announced that the US will insist on a Venezuelan puppet who will do everything the US demands, starting with the return of all Venezuelan oil and other resources to the rightful American oiligarchs, who will pay a very tiny group of compliant Venezuelans a lot of money to let the US take everything, and leave the vast majority of Venezuelans with nothing. And many believe the Monroe Doctrine will prevail in Venezuela, so Russia and the PRC can do nothing about it, and won't dare to even try.

But the PRC have invested a lot in Venezuela, and they desperately need the oil. And if they let the US have Venezuela, Iran will be next. The US would love to have all the Iranian oil, but if it is not possible to overthrow the Ayatollah and return to the days of the Shah (before 1973, when the Shah did a Mossadegh), Israel are ready to nuke Iran to eliminate the Iranian threat to total Israeli dominance of Southwest Asia, and then no one will be able to use the radioactive oil. And the US will settle for cutting the PRC off from all oil, either by having all the oil under US control (best case scenario), or having the oil destroyed so no one can use it (not so good, but destroying the PRC economy would be worth it).

Updates(?) on the Ukraine

Some of the people I watch on, e.g., Judge Napolitano, ask, 'Why are the US/UK/EU squandering so much money on the Ukraine, which is obviously a lost cause? Millions of forcibly drafted Ukrainian soldiers have died, the US/UK/EU have squandered $billions, and there is no possible hope of victory.'

The answer is that the CIA and MI6 have told all the mainstream media in the US/UK/EU to write:

1) The Russian military are losing, and losing badly, the Russians have lost more than 5 million soldiers, armed with WWII weapons that don't work, patched up with washing-machine parts, and the Russians are fighting against the Ukrainian military who are armed with the most advanced NATO weaponry, who have only lost 50,000 to 100,000 troops, so victory is very close; and

2) The sanctions have totally destroyed the Russian economy. The Russians don't have enough to eat, the Russian stores have nothing to sell. Russia cannot supply the Russian military that are illegally invading the Ukraine, so the soldiers are eating their dead companions, since they have nothing else to eat.

And then the CIA and MI6 read this in the mainstream media, and know they must have gotten it right, and report this to their senior government officials, who are convinced that they are very close to victory.

And victory over (and colonisation of) Russia have been desired by Europe for more than 1,000 years.

The Commonwealth of Poland and Lithuania have been at war with Russia (on and off) for more than 1,000 years. 

Napoleon tried to take all of Russia in 1812, won, and Russia have paintings of the victorious French Army killing Russians. But Russia have two great generals, who were on vacation when Napoleon attacked, but when they got back to work, General January and General February reduced Napoleon's invasion force of 500,000 to a force of just 10,000 that managed to make it back to East Prussia (as depicted in what is considered the greatest visual graphic ever, Charles Minard's map of Napoleon's disastrous Russian campaign of 1812).

And Hitler sent the Wehrmacht to cleanse the USSR of Slavs and make it a home for Aryans, a campaign that lasted from 1941 until 1945, but did not work out all that well (the official US/UK/NATO version is that the US almost single-handedly, with just a little help from the Brits, defeated the Wehrmacht).

'Why?' one might ask, have so many wanted to conquer Russia? The answer is that Russia is very rich in agricultural land and energy resources.

All those resources belong to US/UK/EU oligarchs (who run the US/UK/EU governments), and they know they are very close to having all that Russian energy and agricultural products, so they just need to keep at it a little bit longer and spend just a few $trillion (of the ordinary taxpayers' money, not their own money), and those many, many $trillions will all be theirs.

And the CIA and MI6 tell the US/UK/EU mainstream media, and the mainstream media all report, that victory is very close, we have to finish this war with complete victory over Russia, break Russia up into  small states, and all those resources now being stolen by Putin will be returned to their rightful owners, the US oligarchs, just as the US did to Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc., etc.

This has gone so well, so many times, that most believe the US/UK/EU mainstream media must be correct, not the Russian propaganda that is believed and spread by the people who fill a few of the social media channels.

Tucker Carlson wants to Make the US more like the PRC???

Tucker Carlson dislikes Representative Ilhan Omar. I don't know if Ilhan Omar is her legal name, or is it like the old joke about the 'John Johnson Chinese Laundry'.

Someone saw the sign hanging over the door to the laundry, went in, saw a person of obviously Oriental ethnicity, and asked, 'How did you get the name, 'John Johnson Chinese Laundry?'

The owner said, 'My grandfather was in the queue at Ellis Island. The immigration agent asked the man in front of him, 'What's your name?' and he said, 'John Johnson.' The immigration officer filled out the form, gave it to the man, and said, 'Go ahead.' 

Then my grandfather stepped up to the agent and was asked, 'What's your name?' and he said, 'Mi Tu', and the agent gave him a paper with his American name written down as 'John Johnson.'

***

In Arabic cultures, everyone's name is their own name, their father's name, their grandfather's name, and, at some point, their family name which must start with an 'Al'. So Omar is not her family name, it's her father's name. And those calling her 'Omar' are calling her by her father's name, not her own name and not her family name, at least in Arabic.

Of course, the immigration agent might have written on the form: Given name: Ilhan, Family name: Omar

so now, legally, her family name could be Omar, not her actual family name, but like the name given to the apocryphal Chinese laundry owner in the old joke.

***

In any case, Carlson notes that most Somalis living in the US live in two cities, one of them Minneapolis (I forget the other), and they mostly speak Somali, live in neighbourhoods that are all (or at least almost all) Somali, and, worst of all from Carlson's perspective, they vote Democrat.

***

Carlson wants all of the US to be one, homogeneous culture, an Anglo culture. As he says, he has nothing against Somalis, as long as they stay in Somalia, but if they come to the US, they should speak English, scatter and live in mixed neighbourhoods, accept the Anglo culture, and vote Republican (Tucker doesn't like anyone who votes Democrat).

***

The PRC has 56 official ethnic groups. The largest group are the Han, comprising 91.1% of the total PRC population. The 2nd largest group are the Zhuang, with 1.4%. Fifty years ago, there was discrimination in favour of the Han, they got the best jobs, best houses, severe discrimination against the other ethnic groups. But that was 50 years ago. Not clear why, but things changed, lots of things changed.

First, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), two agencies who work with the CIA to bring 'democracy' to undemocratic countries by overthrowing the authoritarian government and replacing it with a good, democratic government that lets US oligarchs steal everything worth stealing, but it's a free democracy, so that's good.

The Uyghurs once occupied a place the Europeans called Turkmenistan, which got divided between the Chinese province of Xinjiang, which means 'New Boundary' in Chinese, and some parts, first of the Russian Empire, and later of the USSR, until the break-up of the USSR when they became independent, impoverished countries, one of which is Kazakhstan. NED and USAID gave Uyghurs in Kazakhstan money and weapons to go into the PRC to destroy PRC government property and kill PRC government officials, so a lot of what the PRC mislabel as 'terrorism,' when it was just doing good by bringing democracy to an evil autarchic state.

But the PRC have lots of intelligence agents and computers, and now they have a list of all who have ever poked their nose into a NED or USAID facilities, and refuse to let them enter the PRC, so the bombings and killings have pretty much stopped.

The Uyghurs had been living in poverty, even by PRC standards, Very poor housing, very poor jobs. The Uyghurs are Muslim, and it was illegal to go to a mosque, so all the old mosques (some 1,000 or more years old) were closed, or to sell any food suitable for Muslims (called halal). The PRC leadership decided that the best way to stop the beneficial efforts of the US was to make every ethnic group equal.

Uyghurs spoke no Chinese, they could not read or write Chinese, they spoke a language written with the Arabic alphabet. So, even if employers wanted to hire them, they could not understand what they were asked to do, nor could the employer understand their questions about what was wanted.

But even when the job was so straightforward that the Uyghurs could be taught, if the job paid well, it was always given to a Han Chinese.

And then all that changed.

First, religion was legalised, so all the old mosques have reopened (as have all the Buddhist and Taoist temples and pagodas), and almost all food sold in Xinjiang supermarkets and restaurants is halal for Muslims.

Then, China said that all Uighur children must be taught both Uighur and Chinese. All working age Uighur were also required to study Chinese, and had to learn to speak Mandarin and read Simplified Chinese (the PRC decided that the standard Chinese characters were too difficult, so they came up with Simplified Chinese, not all that simple, but easier than the older Chinese writing).

And the Uighur learned, and now they get good jobs and good housing (and can go to mosques that are now all over the PRC, even parts that formerly had few Muslims, and find halal restaurants).

Before, a typical Chinese home was one room for what might have been a family with 10 kids. A Han home had no running water, a Uighur home might not have electricity, and usually had had big holes in the roof, so rain was a big problem.

Today, the Uighur have decent, above average jobs and good housing, much larger, than their old homes, no holes, running water and electricity, subsidised heat in winter.

Uighur are given jobs picking cotton, a very difficult job to get in China. Most cotton is picked by machine, but there are some very expensive kinds of cotton that must be picked by hand, and this pays very well. Before, such work only went to Han Chinese, but now, most of that work that's in Xinjiang is given to Uygur people. They also have jobs working on the automatic cotton pickin' machines that pick the vast majority of the cotton.

All the mosques are open, and most of the food in Xinjiang is halal, and for Uyghur who travel outside of Xinjiang, there are lots of halal restaurants where the PRC government checks and makes sure everything is halal.

***

Net: Now everyone must speak Mandarin, read and write Simplified Chinese, and the ordinary Chinese (老百姓 lao bai xing), both Han and ethnic minorities,  all live in similar homes.

So one can say that all the minorities in the PRC have been Hanified (i.e., foreign barbarians, 洋鬼子 yang gui zi can't tell them apart). 

(The ethnic minorities would probably say they can eat what they want, so they don't eat like the Han, they can worship where and how they want, not in the places where the Han worship, so they are not at all like the Han, but it's hard for us foreign barbarians to see the differences.)