The 2026 State of the Union Address will take place on Tuesday, 24 February.
I heard some experts say that any War on Iran will tend to overshadow and distract people from paying much attention to the State of the Union, something Trump would never allow, so the War must be postponed until at least 25 February, and then take place either that day or very shortly thereafter.
Trump announced on the afternoon of 19 February that, if Iran do not surrender and agree to all the US terms within 10 days, the war will start. It is not altogether clear what all those terms are: One or more of:
1) the JCPOA that Obama negotiated, got UN Security Council Approval, and so was 'legally binding on the US', then Trump said he was cancelling the JCPOA?
2) no nuclear material of any kind in Iran?
3) no missiles in Iran?
4) total disarmament, Iran must be totally demilitarised?
5) new leadership, the Ayatollahs all have to leave, the Shah has to return as total ruler of Iran, and must stick to his agreement to return all the oil in Iran oil to the legal owners (under US/UK/EU law): BP?
6)????
One must recall that, the last time Trump said time was running out, that Iran must meet negotiators on Sunday, 15 June or the war would start, that the war started in the early hours of Friday, 13 June, with help from many Mossad, CIA, and MI6 agents and from the IAEA, so Israel knew where every general and senior atomic scientist was living and droned all their homes, killing every single Iranian general and senior atomic scientist, and tried to kill both the Ayatollah and the president of Iran but only wounded the Iranian President, and the Ayatollah was not staying in the residence where the spies said he would be, so he escaped unharmed.
So Trump might expect a great victory, as Great and as Quick as Venezuela, a victory he will be able to brag about during the Address, so the war might start and end with a total and complete US victory before the address, catching the Iranians totally by surprise?
Last I heard, most of the experts are predicting that the war will start shortly after the address and take at least a few weeks, and some predict a year or more.
So will Trump wait 10 days, and start the war on 29 June, or sooner or later or ????
There are, of course, the second and third Carrier Battle Groups, AKA the second and third Armadas, which have not yet reached a position where they can participate in any initial massive strike on Iran, a strike which is supposed to be so massive that it will take out all the top government officials and most Iranian military assets, leaving Iran unable to make much of a return strike, nothing that can penetrate Israel's Iron Dome, which has been further protected by many Patriot batteries set up in the last few weeks. And if the US are waiting for all the Armadas to arrive, the war will have to be postponed until they arrive, which will be a week or more after the State of the Union Address, and not clear exactly when that will be.
Again, Trump said Iran must meet all US terms (which are not precisely articulated) before 29 June, but, based on what we've seen Israel and the US military do before, the attack might be sooner or later than that.
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After the first US and/or US-Israeli strike are launched from the one, two, or three Armadas, Iran are supposed to have nothing left that can penetrate the Israeli defences or the defences the US have set up to protect US military assets in West Asia, nothing that can do any damage to the Arabian Gulf oil fields, nothing that can mine the Strait of Hormuz and limit the easy travel of Arabian oil to world markets. And with the Ayatollahs all gone, the Shah can be put back in, all Iranian oil, stolen by the Ayatollahs in 1980, will be returned to the lawful owner (under US/UK/EU law), BP!
And after this victory, the US will be free to concentrate on liberating the Soviet Union from the Communist dictators, and then breaking up the former USSR into many, small, demilitarised countries, with all Soviet oil, gold, and other valuable minerals returned to the rightful owners, Western (mostly American) oiligarchs, as War Reparations.
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Of course, some of the pro-Iranian propaganda channels say the evil PRC and Russia have given some weapons to the Iranians that can stop any US or US/Israeli attack. Iran say, 'That is not true. No one has given us any weapons, we bought them all with our own money.'
In any case, it is not at all clear what kinds of weapons Iran have, except that none are nuclear. They might have hypersonic missiles that can penetrate the defences of the Armada(s) and Israel. They might have stealth submarines that can take out some or all of the ships in the Armada(s).
I keep wondering about a) calling it 'three Armadas,' since the term 'Armada' covers all the US naval assets, not just part of them; and b) using the word 'Armada' after what happened to the most famous Armada in (British) history.
The Armada(s) are sure that they are out of range of all Iranian missiles, but it is not clear if that intelligence is correct.
The Iranians also have some stealth submarines, but the US a) may not know that a backward nation like Iran could possibly have any submarines, and b) if they do, they are probably like the US Civil War Southern Rebel submarines that were easily destroyed by the Union Navy, so the US Navy are sure they can detect and destroy any Iranian submarine that approaches the Armada(s).
There are quite a few commentators on the pro-Iranian propaganda channels who figure the US Armada(s) will do about as well as that last Armada sent to conquer Britain, the Iranian hypersonic missiles and stealth submarines will be able to sink much of the Armada(s), and those hypersonic missiles will then do massive damage to Israel, US military bases, and the Arabian Gulf oil fields. Iran will also mine the Strait of Hormuz, possible with PRC mines set to never go off if approached by a PRC tanker, so the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to all ships except those from the PRC.
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Net: a lot of people claim to have excellent intelligence about what is about to happen, but we'll have to wait before we can be sure.
What does seem likely is that, if the US and/or Israel attack Iran, and that initial strike fails to decapitate all Iranian defences, which then prove rather resilient and formidable, seriously threatening the complete destruction of Israel, then Israel will carpet nuke Iran to take out all Iranian defences.
This will, sadly, leave Iranian oil too radioactive for anyone to use, and make oil permanently worth much more than current prices, but at least Israel would be safe from Iran, and could start concentrating on taking out Türkiye.
After all, Israel were promised all the land from the Euphrates to the wadi, and, the Zionists have a new and greatly improved definition of wadi from the ancient Hebrew meaning (an arroyo), to the new definition, Great River, so now the word wadi means the entire River Nile, so Israel runs from the northernmost tip of the Euphrates to the southernmost tip of the Nile, and the Turks need to find someplace else to live, as do all the West Asian Arabs.
But we aren't sure what, exactly, it will take to convince Israel that they have reached a situation that necessitates the use of their nuclear arsenal, or if the Iranian response to an attack by the US and/or Israel would be such a situation.
So it looks like some very interesting times ahead.