Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Trump plans regime change in Iran

Trump has been saying he intends to force regime change in Iran since 2015. Flynn was invited to Russia to tell them more about Trump, whom they hadn't heard much about, and he explained that Trump's main goal as president would be regime change in Iran.

This actually goes back to Bush, Jr's 2003 State of the Union address, rated as among the 5 best State of the Union addresses, ever, by the Washington Post. Back in September, 2001, some thought Saudi might have had something to do with the 9/11 attack. Bush, Jr. knew better. He gave orders on 11 Sept 2001 that absolutely no one could fly except Saudis, since he knew the Saudis practice a peaceful, non-violent version of Islam. Top US experts tell us it's the Shi'a version of Islam, which prohibits all violence.

No, Bush, Jr explained in 2003, it was Iran that ordered the 9/11 attacks, trained and paid the thousands of hijackers who were their coreligionists in Afghanistan, Iraq, the DPRK, Libya, Syria, and Cuba (the last three weren't in the State of the Union address, Bush, Jr added them later). We know the hijackers must have spent time in Iran because, when US immigration checked their passports, there were no Iranian visas (proving they'd been to Iran, but secretly, since the Iranians are so clever). Con Coughlin, the always reliable UK journalist, noted that Iran gave some of the hijackers badly faked Saudi passports, but none of the hijackers were Saudis, and I know we can all trust Con Coughlin, just as we can trust the US experts, who teach us that Iran and its coreligionists follow the Sufi sect of Islam, a sect dedicated to violence and jihad.

We know that Mullah Omar in Afghanistan must be a follower of the Ayatollahs, since Omar is one of the most popular names in Iran, and is the surname of many of the Ayatollahs, including Omar Khomeini and Omar Khamenei, just as we know Saddam was another of their loyal and devout jihadi followers, and so was Kim's father and also Castro and most Cubans, and so is Kim and the rest of the DPRK.

So anyone can see Trump's war to force regime change in Iran will be more than justified, and we hope his war transforms Iran from an impoverished, brutal dictatorship and state sponsor of terror into a democratic, peaceful and prosperous paradise (as Thomas Friedman has frequently praised Bush, Jr and Obama for accomplishing in Iraq and Libya).

Every president since Reagan has started a war to liberate some oppressed country early in his 3rd year (to help with re-election), and Trump is now in his 3rd year, so it's about time, and I expect the regime change in Iran to start in the next couple of months (shutdowns don't affect the US military).

Thursday, January 10, 2019

US Government Shutdown

Most governments don't just shut down. But the US does. Usually, just for a day or two. But Trump is different. Trump gave a speech that more people are killed by illegal immigrants every year than died in the Vietnam War, and the only answer is more border security and a $5.6 billion wallbarrier. The House Speaker says any wall under Trump is immoral (unlike his predecessors, when 600 miles of wall was a moral imperative), so not 1¢ for a wall. So far, the Congress hasn't passed a budget with funding for the unfunded agencies, so Trump has nothing to sign or veto. Having said the lack of a wall kills more than the Vietnam War, Trump would have a hard time backing down. Having said the wall is immoral, I can't see the Democrats backing down. So 800,000 government employees won't be getting paid (and it's illegal for them to take other jobs). Most are low-level, low paid, living pay-cheque to pay-cheque, so to pay the rent and keep food on the table, they have to take out very high-interest loans. In the past, once the shutdown was over, the furloughed Federal workers were all paid their full wages, but the interest will still take a hefty chunk when they finally get paid. People with pre-paid trips to visit Federal parks or museums have a hotel room next to a park or museum that's closed. And people who desperately need Federal forms won't get them.

But the wars will go on. Trump said he was immediately withdrawing from Syria, but most people didn't understand: 'immediately' in English means, 'later, maybe never.' Or so say Bolton and Pompeo.

So the shutdown inconveniences a lot of people, but none of the usual evils will be delayed or reduced in the slightest.

Saturday, January 5, 2019

1st Post 2019

It's 2019.

Reagan, both Bushes, Clinton, and Obama all started wars early in Year 3 of their first term to assist with their re-election bids (worked for all but Bush, Sr.). And it's now Year 3 of Trump's first term. Since '15, Trump has been promising regime change in Iran. The US media is against it, since Obama signed a Peace Treaty (of course, Clinton had a 'peace treaty' with Saddam, and Bush, jr had a peace treaty with Qaddafi, so one assumes if St Hillary had been elected, she'd have announced that she wanted to stick with Obama's peace treaty with Iran, but Iranian violations forced her to go to war, and the entire US print and broadcast media would cheer St Hillary on as she led the regime removal, just as they'll condemn Trump for violating that treaty).

The 'experts' say that Iran should not be a top priority, the DPRK, Russia, and China must come first. The US hasn't had much luck against any countries that were not in Latin America. Regime change in Iraq and Libya: easy. A working government where the US corporations could safely exploit all the natural resources: much more difficult. And Russia, China, and the DPRK are all in a league the US has always been rather cautious about challenging. In '45, Truman knew Japan was defeated, so he ordered the US military to use every nuke they had on Japan (they only had 2, and they dropped both of them and destroyed 2 undefended Japanese cities--nukes were too expensive to risk against defended cities).

Then, 6 years later, MacArthur wanted to use nukes against China, but Truman knew the USSR could provide China with a nuclear umbrella, so he fired MacArthur.

Candidate Trump promised no war with Syria or Russia (another of his lies). But Trump seems at least as intelligent as Truman: he hasn't tried regime change in the DPRK, Russia, or China (for which he's called a traitor, leaving those heinous threats un-nuked). The 'experts' who want Trump to destroy the DPRK, Russia, and China think those nations can't do any more than Japan could in '45.


The Concerned Scientists say the Doomsday Clock is just two minutes before midnight. Those Concerned Scientists are all Pollyannas.

Friday, December 14, 2018

Not much happened

Syria shot down a Russian plane on 17 Sept, and Russia said it would give Syria some S-300 missiles that a) had IFF that the S-200 missiles lack, so Syria would be unable to shoot down another Russian plane; and b) are capable of shooting down IAF planes. The missiles have been delivered, but no IAF planes have been shot down (and nor has another Russian plane). So no news.

Mr Jamal Khashoggi was murdered on 2 October, and everyone predicted something would happen. It didn't. MbS, the current unofficial ruler of Saudi Arabia (unofficial until his father's death, when he becomes the official ruler) is still supported by Trump, May, Macron, and Merkel and doesn't seem to be going anywhere (well, to world meetings like the G20, but not out of power); many want him replaced by another prince in the al-Saud tribe, but that hasn't happened, and the more time that passes since Jamal's death, the less likely it is that anyone will do anything. So no news.

The war in Yemen continues, and the New York Times is doing just as it did in Vietnam. Back when LBJ was president, the Vietnam war was necessary since North Vietnam attacked a US Navy ship in international waters, an incident equivalent to Pearl Harbor, and major US gains meant the war would soon be won. After Nixon took office, the war was an illegal action involving many war crimes, all based on Nixon's lie that North Vietnam attacked a US Navy ship in international waters, no progress was being made, and the US was absolutely unable to defeat North Vietnam was was just wasting money and US lives. During the last 5 years, rinse and repeat: while Obama was president, the US was helping the Saudi coalition stop terrorism in the Yemen; now that Trump is president, the war is all Trump's fault and is illegal and murdering thousands of babies and is in the newspapers daily, but the Congress voted not to vote on the war, and even if it ordered Trump to stop (as it ordered Obama to stop his regime change in Libya), Trump could just ignore them and no one could do anything. So, again, no news.

Huawei was winning the war for smartphones against the US, so the US declared Huawei illegal, asked all countries to arrest any Huawei officer travelling through them, and Canada obliged and arrested the CFO, who was denied bail for a week or two, but finally was bailed out with a multimillion (Canadian) dollar bail and an ankle bracelet. The US hopes it can get Huawei phones banned outside of China, and shut down the company. Not clear what will happen.

China is trying to figure out what to do. As the Chinese propaganda channel said back during the ZTE crisis, the US owns Android and iOS, so the US can prohibit export, and stop all smartphone production outside the US, but Trump didn't go that far with ZTE, just a few billion dollars in fines, and they could keep making Android phones. Now it is Huawei, and this looks more serious. China retaliated by arresting some Canadians, but it's not clear what Canada will do. The US is too close and too dangerous, and letting a few Canadians die in Chinese gaols is a small price to pay.

Unless, of course, things escalate to the point of war between the US and China, but Canada will probably write off any Canadians arrested in China, and say, 'Good Canadians don't ever go to China.' Not clear if China will try arresting some Americans, or what the US might do if China did.

Likewise, the US arrested a Russian who was in the US for an NRA convention and says she's a shpion. Her lawyers told her to confess she was an unregistered lobbyist, and now it's not clear what the US will do: deportation or prison. Or what Russia will do. The Ukraine is trying to get US warships into the Sea of Azov. Many US 'experts' say that MAD is no longer. The US has AD for any nation foolish enough to defy the orders of the US, orders which, as Thrasymachus would say, are legal and must be obeyed unless a nation is foolish enough to risk its own obliteration as happened to any nation that defied Rome back in the day. With the US, nations that never defied the US were obliterated, but those nations had no one to defend them (and not much in the way of defences).

Now the establishment media wants the US to force the DPRK, Russia, and China to comply with US military expansion, or else. But so far, nothing has happened. Some of us believe that, unlike places like Iraq and Libya and Afghanistan and Syria and the Yemen, the DPRK, Russia, and China could do something, but a lot of damage would be done to any of them that provoke the US, so they might lay low and let the US do whatever it wants. Or not. And the US hasn't tried to do to any of those three what it did to Iraq and Libya and Afghanistan and Syria and the Yemen.

Trump is still planning regime change in Iran in '19 to help with his re-election. Mueller is hoping to convince the Congress to impeach and convict, but he probably can't.

So things are likely to remain just as they are, and the children in the Yemen will continue to starve.

Friday, November 9, 2018

2018 Midterms and Israeli bombing Syria

As everyone predicted, the House is now narrowly Democrat, and the Senate is narrowly Republican, meaning the House can block any idiocy by the Senate and Trump. Not that they're likely to do so. The Republicans condemned Obama's regime change in Libya, but the regime got changed anyway. There was an act passed after Vietnam that the president can't unilaterally start a war, so it's just a military action unless the Congress votes to call it a war. The Congress have no control over anything except what it's called. And the Democrats let Bush, jr do whatever he said he had to do to keep the US safe. Torture? It's torture, punishable by death, if an enemy does it to an agent of the US government. If the US does it to an enemy of the US, the exact same procedure is just 'enhanced interrogation', completely legal under International Law (with the legality defined by Thrasymachus). Killing grandmothers and babies? Terrorists all.  We thank our brave, brave soldiers for keeping us safe by killing them.

The Democrats will probably block any Republican attempt to cut Social Security and Medicare, but will probably let the Republicans do anything else they like. They'll send subpoenas to the White House every day, and Trump will invoke Executive Privilege, and he'll be backed up by his Supreme Court, so all the House can do is send the daily subpoena, annoying the White House and forcing them to write the daily 'Executive Privilege' letter.

Regime change in Iran is very likely in 2019, it's been planned since 2003. After all, the US courts said the Iranians funded the 9/11 attack and trained the hundreds of hijackers, a few of which are still incarcerated in Guantanamo, and the rest, of course, returned to heroes' welcomes in the Axis of Evil: Afghanistan, Iraq, the DPRK, Libya, Syria, and Cuba. Many don't realise that all those countries are co-religionists of the Ayatollahs, but the US President has access to intelligence the rest of us lack. So when Bush, jr and the US courts said no Saudi was involved, it was all the Axis of Evil, that's final, and was accepted by Obama and Trump (and again, we have to use the Thrasymachus definition of 'irrefutable proof').

Russia has sold a very few S-300 missiles to Syria, but RT says they cover less than 10% of Syria, so Israel can continue to bomb at will (Israeli intelligence would know where they are so the Israeli Air Force can avoid them). It seems, if the planes fly low, the S-300 is only effective over a 25 km range, and Russia only sold between 2 and 4 of them, so not much coverage (but Israel won't be able to safely bomb within 25 km of where the 2 or 4 are).

So RT has made it clear that, for protection, one must buy lots of S-400 anti-aircraft batteries. Two or four S-300s won't provide much protection at all. Decent marketing by the Russians.

Friday, November 2, 2018

Living with the US of A

The US media keep saying that MAD no longer exists, the US military is so strong, they have impregnable defences and an offence that can completely destroy any enemy of the US. The US media say that Russia's recent video of MAD weapons that can penetrate US defences are just Photoshop, so the US is invulnerable, and can destroy any nation that does not do as they're told by the US (e.g., China and its 9-Dash Line).

Meaning, the nuclear powers led by sane leaders have to figure out what is the best thing they can do about the nuclear power led by a bunch of crazies.

For years, the US picked proxy wars in Korea and Vietnam with the USSR and China, or neo-Imperial wars with Iran, Grenada, Panama, Chile, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, etc., etc., and so managed to avoid the danger of a nuclear war, but then, the US knew that nuclear war meant MAD, and now they don't.

The Concerned Scientists say the Doomsday Clock is two minutes before midnight. Pollyannas, those Concerned Scientists.

Monday, October 22, 2018

Syria, Jamal, and nuclear test ban treaties

Lots has been happening since my last post. Russia is supposed to have deployed the S-300 in Syria on 20 October, but nothing in the news. Back in September, some Israelis wrote that Israel's US jets can easily evade and destroy the S-300 and S-400, and it's only a matter of time before all the S-300s and S-400s in Syria are destroyed by the Israeli Air Force. Those S-300s are supposed to be operational now, but no word from Russia about them, no S-300s shot at any Israeli jets, and no Israeli bombing raids on Syria in the news. Of course, the news isn't all that reliable, lots of Israeli bombing raids on Syria never made the news, because they're so common. But are Israeli bombing raids on Syria still as common as they were? No news I can find.

In Istanbul, Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi Consulate. For more than 2 weeks, Saudi said he was only there for a few minutes, left, and no one knew where he was. Turkey said, officially, 'Investigation in progress. No comment.' But rumours by anonymous person or persons unknown said Turkey had tapes of Jamal's brutal murder on the orders of MbS. Jamal was sent by another prince to promote Saudi Arabia to the Western media, and he did a very good job of it, wining and dining and flattering all the top journalists so every newspaper said what a great person (and journalist) Jamal was. And all the Western media are furious that he was killed on orders of MbS.

Before, Saudi was run by a consensus of all the leaders in the Alsaud family and the senior muftis. Somehow, MbS got complete, dictatorial control of everything. He developed a dislike for Jamal and ordered his murder in such a way that he could deny it, but it would be obvious that he'd done it as a message to anyone else who was thinking of possibly saying something without MbS's permission. MbS had a man who resembled Jamal leaving the Consulate, but Turkey showed tapes of Jamal entering and said he never left (they recently showed the video of the agent leaving, looking much like Jamal). MbS didn't offer Turkey enough baksheesh, or maybe he wants to show he's strong enough the Turks can't touch him. Turkey and the Western media want the Western governments to force Saudi to get a new and improved Crown Prince and get rid of MbS, but it's not clear if Western governments agree. Trump keeps waffling, as do May, Macron, and Merkel.

In yet more news, the US has announced it's abrogating some nuclear test ban treaties since Russia was cheating (no proof Russia was cheating, all evidence classified TS/SCI/NOFORN/BBR). Theories abound: China isn't part of the treaty, so the US wants a new and improved treaty that limits the Chinese nuclear force. There's also the fact that, when Reagan started an arms race with the USSR back in the '80s, the result was bankruptcy and collapse for the USSR in '89, and Russia is much poorer and weaker than the USSR, so an arms race that forces Russia into bankruptcy and complete collapse should be easy. Or so the US seems to think.

Someone wrote that Trump should learn from Truman. Probably. In '45, Truman knew Japan was defeated and had nothing to throw at the US, so he ordered the US military to drop every nuke they had on Japan (they only had 2 in August '45). In '49, the USSR developed a nuke. In '51, MacArthur wanted to nuke China, but Truman figured the USSR was a close ally of China and would provide them with an umbrella, so he fired MacArthur (as well he should have done). Now the 'experts' are saying the lesson Trump should learn is the one from '45, not the one from '51, while Russia and China are as weak as Japan was in '45, before they get as strong as the USSR was.

Concerned Scientists say the Doomsday Clock is 2 minutes before midnight. Pollyannas, those Concerned Scientists.