Since the Special Military Operation started in February 2022, the Western Narrative was that a) Putin made a huge mistake, the invading force, with their "outmoded and inept" Soviet and even Czarist weapons, could not stand up to the Ukraine military armed with the most advanced 21st century American weapons; b) almost the entire Russian force had been destroyed, they held, very temporarily, about 3 small villages where they murdered the civilians and blew up all the buildings, but had to quickly retreat whenever they saw the Ukraine military approach; c) Putin was soon to face regime change; and d) Putin's replacement would be subject to NATO and would be forced, like Gorbachev, to let NATO break up Russia into its constituent republics as independent, unarmed nations, and this would take about a fortnight, so Europeans could take cold showers for a fortnight to preserve Democracy and avoid Chamberlain's fatal error (at least in Churchill's autohagiography) of Appeasement at Munich that would have Putin conquering all of Europe and then proceed to attack the Americas. This 'total victory over the Russians in their three villages' lasted until the Ukraine announced that they had liberated 2 Oblasts: how could the Ukraine liberate 2 Oblasts when the Russians only held a few villages?
So the new version was that the Russians took some territory, the Ukraine, given more advanced weapons by NATO in September 2022, had quickly retaken 60% and would retake the rest within a fortnight. Victory remained 'just a fortnight away, and anyone can put up with cold showers for just a fortnight'.
But the Russians were not pushed back after those two Oblasts, but were moving forward meter by meter.
In 2014, a small Russian military force marched into the Crimea, the Ukrainian army surrendered without a fight, an overwhelming majority of the Crimeans voted to return to Russia: they had been transferred by the USSR from the Soviet Socialist Republic of Russia to the Soviet Socialist Republic of the Ukraine in 1954. Russia threatened to do more unless the Ukraine agreed to the Minsk Accords, the Donbass would remain part of the Ukraine, but the Ukrainian Law that the Russian Language and the Orthodox Church were both Capital Offences would not apply in the Donbass. Both Merkel and Hollande and Poroshenko announced that the Minsk Accords were all a lie to buy time, during which they built, with US help of course, many, many impregnable fortresses that cannot be harmed by the largest conventional bombs from aeroplanes nor by artillery nor by conventional missiles. And Russia did not use the tactical nukes that could have destroyed those fortresses, Russia starved them out, preventing their being resupplied with food until they had to abandon the fortress and retreat or surrender. There were many of these fortresses, all over the Donbass, so Russian progress was measured in centimeters a day. Which the Western narrative called Russian defeat, or, at best, a Russian stalemate. Progress was obviously impossible, the fortresses were holding. Only, one by one, they were actually falling.
So now the West are sending a new game changer, heavy tanks and fighter aircraft.
Those tanks, in large numbers, did a lot of damage in Iraq. Some were destroyed by anti-tank weapons, but not that many. The Iraqis did not have very many anti-tank weapons, but the fact that a 3rd world country, or just a random terrorist, could occasionally get lucky and destroy the best US tank means they are not absolutely invulnerable. And they are not being used against Iraq or Syria or the Yemen. And NATO are initially providing about 60. Which are not expected to last very long.
Likewise, the US declared a no-fly zone over Libya, leaving Gaddafi unprotected, so the US was able to support the anti-Gaddafi forces and kill him. Many demanded a no-fly zone over the Ukraine, but the US has long planned two proxy wars.
If the US declare war on Russia, it could easily go nuclear. If Russia are fighting the Ukraine, no one should use nukes. The war justified sanctions, applied by the US and the US neocolony of Europe. Russia sold just about all its oil and gas very cheaply to Europe, hoping to buy friendship with Europe. No luck, the neocolonial leadership are bought and paid for by the US, and always do what their employer demands, so they slashed their purchases of Russian oil and gas. The Western narrative was that the entire Russia economy was selling oil and gas to Europe, then using the money to buy everything Russia needed from Europe, so the Russian economy is no more, completely destroyed, Russia have no money to pay their army, they have run out of guns, aeroplanes, bullets, rockets, and 'the complete collapse of Russia is a fortnight away'.
Only Russia, having offered oil and gas to Europe at half price to buy favour, found that the PRC and India would be happy to pay 60% of full price: they saved a lot over what they'd been paying, and Russia had more revenue than before. Europe must pay for Russian oil and gas in roubles, since, when they 'paid' in US$, all those US$ were confiscated as punishment for the war. India can pay in rupees, and the PRC can pay in RMB. And Russia, the PRC, and India are talking about developing a new currency for transactions that the West has banned and will not allow in US$ or € or £.
Meanwhile, Europe are paying six times as much for oil and gas, so European factories cannot afford to operate, and the US is deindustrialising Europe. The purpose of NATO has always been to keep the US in Europe, the USSR then Russia out, and Germany down, and NATO are succeeding!
But the two stated goals of NATO were 1) leave Russia so weak they can never again wage any war of any kind; and 2) regime change. Breaking up Russia into a bunch of tiny, impuissant nations is a plan the US and UK have been working on since WWII, but has not been openly stated during the current conflict, but it's still there.
And, while NATO are keeping Russia out of Europe, the Western narrative about Russian defeat and total collapse does not seem to be happening, except in all the Western media. One by one, months apart, NATO built Ukrainian fortress after Ukrainian fortress have been falling before the Russian onslaught. And there are only a finite number of fortresses. Part of the strength of the fortresses is that they support each other, and when enough have fallen, the rest will be far more vulnerable and will start falling faster.
When the collapse of the Ukraine will come is not clear. Nor is it clear that NATO will keep this a proxy war, since the proxy war is not going nearly as well as planned. NATO will have to supply much more.
But there is a problem: Russia knew this was coming and built up a real defence industry. The Western defence industry is a money pit, filled with corruption, outrageously expensive contracts for weapons that are capable of destroying Panama, Serbia, Iraq, and Libya, but will not be nearly as effective against a first world military as against third world militaries.
Worse, the Russian defence industry can produce WWII quantities of ammunition, expandable to WWIII levels, while the NATO defence industry can only produce enough conventional munitions for a war against Panama.
NATO's goal is the complete destruction of Russia. Russia's goal was initially the demilitarisation and deNazification of the Ukraine, meaning all the ethnic Russians in the Ukraine and everyone in Russia would be safe from attack by NATO and NATO proxy killers. The new Russian goal is the complete destruction of NATO and the US$.
The US had a great plan back in 2014. We'll have to see how it finally turns out.
But the biggest fear is that the US, faced with the loss of World Hegemony, will figure it is better to have no world at all than to lose that hegemony. Churchill wrote in, "Shall We All Commit Suicide" that, with the new poison gasses developed after WWI, and with the new aeroplanes that could spray the new gasses over every European city, WWII would exterminate every human in Europe. So he thought that the Allies and the Axis both had to wherewithal to destroy the world, so poison gasses were never used in combat in WWII. But I fear the NATO leadership are not nearly as prudent as the Allied and Axis leadership in WWII.
The Atomic Scientists say the Doomsday Clock is just 90 seconds from midnight. Bunch of Pollyannas, those Atomic Scientists.
