Back in the, back in the DPRK

It looked like Trump was actually going to accomplish something useful. Kim told Moon he'd be willing to denuclearise the entire Korean peninsula. Then Bolton and Pence and then Trump promised Kim the 'Libyan option'. The official Trump version was that Libya refused to give up its nukes, so the US forced regime removal, and the only way Kim can avoid regime removal is to immediately give up all his nukes, with inspections. Trump seems to think Kim is as stupid and gullible as Saddam and Muammar. Pity he's not.

Trump still wants regime change in Iran, which (they think) is still safe enough: no WMDs, no MAD unless the Friends of Iran decide to do something (if Iran has any Friends that are that close). A Libyan-style regime removal in Iran seems possible, with little cost to the US, and big benefits for Trump from his Friends on the other side of the Gulf with Two Names.

Trump is probably just being Trump and making idle threats against the DPRK. The US media say Kim can only destroy all US assets in the RoK, and are split: some say, 'Nuke now, the RoK is a cheap price to pay to get rid of the DPRK,' while others say, 'The US has too much invested in the RoK that would be destroyed, so learn to live with the DPRK for now, and keep trying that Libyan option.'

If the US starts to force regime change, Kim has said he won't waste a single one of his many nukes on the RoK, he plans to deploy every last one in the US. No reason to think he can't. He has an ICBM that can reach the eastern US, so a Warday strike would be easy. The DPRK smuggled nerve agent into Malaysia, so smugglers might bring in many bombs and set them off in major cities. The US can completely obliterate the DPRK, but the DPRK has MAD, so they can do enough damage that the US won't be much of a world power after the war is over. Not to mention that nuking the DPRK will annoy the PRC and Russia no end. Trump's best approach to the DPRK is to just continue to bluster, something he enjoys doing on a daily basis.

The DPRK isn't insane enough to start anything, but it will do its best to finish any attempt at regime change by the US.