US intelligence announced that very soon now, Russia will attack the Donbass, say it was the Ukrainian Army, and invade the Ukraine. That will 'force' the US to impose sanctions same as Iran: any nation that trades with Russia is in heinous violation of International Law, and anyone from that nation that ever travels to Western Europe, the Antipodes, the US, Canada, and much of Latin America will be arrested and extradited to the US to face charges with a penalty of Life without Parole. Russia will also be cut off from SWIFT and the US$.
Translation: the Ukraine get most of their money as US handouts which will be cut off unless they march into the Donbass and enforce the laws against the Russia Language and the Russian Orthodox Religion. The US press will, of course, say those army forces are all really Russian, and any Russian response is a heinous violation of International Law.
And then what?
Will Russia cave and let the Ukraine abolish the Donbass autonomy and enforce the ban on the Russian Language and the Russian religion, or will the Russian military enforce the autonomy of the Donbass and evict the Ukrainian Army (which, we have seen, is incredibly easy for the Russian military)?
And how will Russia respond to those US sanctions? Russia will make every effort to ensure no Russian makes Ms Meng's mistake and travels to any country under US hegemony where they will be arrested. Will Russia trade with the PRC in RMB? Will the PRC dig pipelines that will enable Russia to sell all its gas to the PRC? Will cutting off Russia (and trying very hard to cut off the PRC) wreck the US economy?
So many questions, with so many very unpleasant answers and a few pleasant possibilities if Russia and the PRC play their cards right.
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