International Trade and Rational War

 Back at the turn of the 20th century, the UK Merchant Marine brought the rich Brits luxury items, food, collectables, etc., from all over the world. The European nations were trading with each other, and, to a lesser extent, with the US. The European Empires did most of their trading inside the Empire. Goodies from the colonies went to the European Imperial Powers, and the colonials got manufactured goods at exorbitant prices (but colonials were prohibited from manufacturing, so they had to buy European manufactured goods).

But because of what was far more international trade than any European could recall, in 1910 Norman Angell wrote The Great Illusion, that proved that a rational war was no longer possible.

The notion of a rational war was an 18th century concept pioneered by Bernoulli. War had to paid for in gold, no printed money accepted back then unless backed by gold. So Bernoulli said one must carefully calculate the probability of winning and the total financial gains from reparations and territory and other benefits ceded, and the probability of loss and the total cost, then calculate the Expected Value of the War. If the Expected Value was positive, the war was rational. If the Expected Value was negative, the war was irrational.

But by 1910, trade was so large (though minuscule by 2019 standards) that the Expected Value of every war was a huge negative number, counting the cost of trade disruption. So no rational war was possible, and no leader could possibly be stupid enough to wage an irrational war.

Of course, Angell greatly miscalculated just how stupid world leaders could be in 1914 (not to mention 2022, when international trade made that in 1914 seem insignificant, and the US European puppets agreed to start a war with Russia with costs that are crippling their economies, but they must follow the US rules to their utter ruin).