Trump ran on a 3-legged platform: peace with Syria and Russia, and regime change in Iran. Flynn went to Moscow and did a programme for the Russian propaganda channel where they asked him what Trump would do, and he said the most important thing would be regime change in Iran. Then he got indicted for accepting money from a foreign state (they paid him to be on Russian TV) and had to resign from his position in the Trump administration, but the promise of regime change in Iran still stands (while the promises of peace with Syria and Russia are looking very shaky). Trump's administration is hoping for complete sanctions against Iran: anyone who buys from or sells to Iran will be prohibited from doing any business with the US, and if the US$ is used, heavy fines and arrests of the guilty parties (like the lady arrested in Canada at the request of the US Department of Justice who is looking at life in prison for selling phones to Iran).
To Iran has been added Venezuela. Guaidó declared that a) he was the sole Venezuelan Head of State; and b) he was handing all Venezuelan assets (including those owned by Russia and the PRC) to whomever would recognise that he is the sole Venezuelan Head of State. The US continues to buy most of the oil produced by Venezuela, but no longer pays for it (all the money must go, of course, to Guaidó, but Maduro, the elected president, won't allow that). So Venezuela is short of food and medicine. The US sent a small amount of food and medicine, saying it can only be delivered to Guaidó, but the government won't allow any of it to go to Guaidó, so it's sitting in Columbia. Maduro figures the US will soon send the military to force regime change, but the US prefers to a) start a crisis by withholding/blockading all payments due to the country so there's a shortage of everything; then b) heavily funding the opposition until they engineer the coup, with help and support from the US, but it's locals raping and killing the young girls, not Americans, so, as Elliott Abrams told Ms Ilhan, don't blame the US, they did great favours for all those Latin American countries the US transformed from impoverished, brutal dictatorships into peaceful and prosperous democracies, and Ms Ilhan had absolutely no right, just because she somehow got elected to the Congress, to question his great results spreading peace, freedom, democracy, and prosperity. (Many members of the Congress figure she should be drummed out of the Congress and replaced by someone who will give Mr Abrams the respect he so richly deserves.)
For reasons that escape Mr Abrams & the rest of the Trump administration, the Venezuelan opposition is having a little trouble, since 60% of Venezuelans, including almost all of the army, support President Maduro.
So now the question is, what next? Iran or Venezuela? Because of the JCPOA by St Obama, the US establishment is against sending troops to Iran; however, they're fully behind sending troops to Venezuela.
Of course, one question is, 'What about Xi-who-must-be-obeyed?' There was also a Russian plane that landed in Venezuela and then returned to Russia, and it's said the plane left behind a squad of Russian advisors to the Venezuelan army, but this is just a rumour. So an US/UK/EU attempt to force regime change in Venezuela might involve more than the usual US regime change in Latin America.
And a unilateral US regime change in Iran might also go rather differently than Iraq or Libya.
And, of course, the US Intelligence services and the US military want regime change in Syria, Russia, the PRC, and the DPRK, and consider all four more important and more urgent than Iran or Venezuela.
Every president since Reagan has started a war in Year 3 of his presidency. And this is Trump's Year 3. So where do we go now?????
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
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