Sunday, April 20, 2025

Where with Iran? (War?)

 I just watched "Life, Liberty, and Levin" on Fox News. Mr. Levin started with 9/11, how just 19 terrorists destroyed the World Trade Center, struck the Pentagon, and crashed a plane in Pennsylvania. Then he showed the old films taken of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and noted that those 19 terrorists could have done a lot more damage with nukes, and Iran are preparing nukes and are very close to giving them to terrorists, but Levin is sure Trump can stop them unless the Left manage to stop Trump's prophylaxis.

The US started by saying all the nuclear bombs were based on U₂₃₅ (U235 if subscripts don't display). My physics professor in high school said he worked on the project: they formed uranium fluoride gas and centrifuged it, so the lighter U₂₃₅(U235) rose to the top and the heavier U₂₃₈(U238) sank to the bottom, but it took many, many cycles to get pure enough U₂₃₅(U235) to make a bomb.

I read a Disney comic where Prof. Ludvig von Drake explained that U₂₃₅(U235) was the most powerful explosive in the world.

Later, the US admitted that one of the three nukes they set off in 1945 was plutonium. Then some said it was two plutonium bombs, and I read one author who wrote that all three bombs were plutonium. The US executed two Jews for giving the USSR the secret of the U₂₃₅(U235) nuclear bomb, with all the details that had pretty much become common knowledge. J. Edgar Hoover rounded up leftists, charged them with treason for giving the USSR the secret of the nuclear bomb, had them sentenced to death, then offered to commute their sentence if they'd name more spies. The Rosenbergs were the first (and last) accused 'spies' who refused to name anyone else, so both were executed in 1953 (there is still a debate about the FBI's 'evidence' of their guilt).

But Levin figures Iran are just weeks away from having a bunch of nukes and giving them to terrorists. 

Fortunately, we have two versions of recent history.

First, the US killed an Iranian general, Suleimani. Iran said when and which US military base they'd attack, and attacked right on schedule, but the US had removed all planes and troops, so no materiel or troops lost. Net: Iran failed to do the slightest damage to the US base, so are they quite incapable of damaging a US base with the sophisticated defences protecting each and every US base, or did they prove they could do a lot of damage if they attacked without first warning the US?

Then Israel killed just about everyone in the Iranian Embassy in Syria, so Iran named their targets in Israel and sent a bunch of drones and missiles, but none got past the massive defensive shield put up by Israel, the US, Jordan, France, the UK, and maybe a few more. That's the Western version.

Or maybe four missiles did get past all the defences and hit empty military targets, doing little damage. That's the Iranian version, and they say that they didn't have to announce when and where they were going to hit, so they could have done major damage, and will do if Israel do another attack on an Iranian Embassy.

Israel want a joint US/Israel attack on Iran. Actually, the last Israeli attack on Iran was when President Assad was still president of Syria, and Syria had antiaircraft weapons, so the US provided hundreds of US planes forming a protective floor and ceiling between which the Israeli planes flew in safety (President Assad ordered the antiaircraft to make sure no US plane was threatened). Assad is gone now, and so are all Syrian defences against Israel, so Israeli planes can fly to and bomb Iran whenever they feel like it, and President Jolani of Syria says he fully supports the Israeli Occupation Force (IOF) and would not do anything to threaten it, even if he had any antiaircraft weapons, which he doesn't since the IOF have destroyed them all.

This raises the question: if Israel attacks Iran, how much support will they get from the US, and can Iran retaliate in any way, or are Israel totally protected by their air defence system called Iron Dome???

Levin and Fox are sure an Iranian atomic attack is imminent, but if Israel and the US act now, they can destroy all the nuclear resources in Iran and keep Israel safe, but if they keep pithering, Israel and the US will soon be hit by hundreds of nukes, and there will be no way to stop them.

Iran say that, if the US and Israel attack Iran, they have plenty of non-nuclear missiles that will do major damage to Israel and all the West Asian US military bases, plus much of the world's oil supply will be under attack and the price of oil will be prohibitively high, stopping much of western industrial activity.

President Trump wants a new and Greatly Improved JCPOA. The trouble with the old one was that Obama and Hillary did the work and got the credit, so President Trump withdrew in spite of a UN Security Council resolution (turns out, the UN membership pledge to be bound by UN regulations aside, the US are not bound by UN Security Council resolutions the way other members of the UN are bound). But President Trump intends to take 110% of the credit for the new and greatly improved JCPOA (that probably will not be allowed a single J, C, P, O, or A in the acronym).

And no matter what the new and improved JCPOA treaty says, the US might decide to assist Israel in their attack on Iran. We'll just have to wait and see.

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