Syria, Jamal, and nuclear test ban treaties

Lots has been happening since my last post. Russia is supposed to have deployed the S-300 in Syria on 20 October, but nothing in the news. Back in September, some Israelis wrote that Israel's US jets can easily evade and destroy the S-300 and S-400, and it's only a matter of time before all the S-300s and S-400s in Syria are destroyed by the Israeli Air Force. Those S-300s are supposed to be operational now, but no word from Russia about them, no S-300s shot at any Israeli jets, and no Israeli bombing raids on Syria in the news. Of course, the news isn't all that reliable, lots of Israeli bombing raids on Syria never made the news, because they're so common. But are Israeli bombing raids on Syria still as common as they were? No news I can find.

In Istanbul, Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in the Saudi Consulate. For more than 2 weeks, Saudi said he was only there for a few minutes, left, and no one knew where he was. Turkey said, officially, 'Investigation in progress. No comment.' But rumours by anonymous person or persons unknown said Turkey had tapes of Jamal's brutal murder on the orders of MbS. Jamal was sent by another prince to promote Saudi Arabia to the Western media, and he did a very good job of it, wining and dining and flattering all the top journalists so every newspaper said what a great person (and journalist) Jamal was. And all the Western media are furious that he was killed on orders of MbS.

Before, Saudi was run by a consensus of all the leaders in the Alsaud family and the senior muftis. Somehow, MbS got complete, dictatorial control of everything. He developed a dislike for Jamal and ordered his murder in such a way that he could deny it, but it would be obvious that he'd done it as a message to anyone else who was thinking of possibly saying something without MbS's permission. MbS had a man who resembled Jamal leaving the Consulate, but Turkey showed tapes of Jamal entering and said he never left (they recently showed the video of the agent leaving, looking much like Jamal). MbS didn't offer Turkey enough baksheesh, or maybe he wants to show he's strong enough the Turks can't touch him. Turkey and the Western media want the Western governments to force Saudi to get a new and improved Crown Prince and get rid of MbS, but it's not clear if Western governments agree. Trump keeps waffling, as do May, Macron, and Merkel.

In yet more news, the US has announced it's abrogating some nuclear test ban treaties since Russia was cheating (no proof Russia was cheating, all evidence classified TS/SCI/NOFORN/BBR). Theories abound: China isn't part of the treaty, so the US wants a new and improved treaty that limits the Chinese nuclear force. There's also the fact that, when Reagan started an arms race with the USSR back in the '80s, the result was bankruptcy and collapse for the USSR in '89, and Russia is much poorer and weaker than the USSR, so an arms race that forces Russia into bankruptcy and complete collapse should be easy. Or so the US seems to think.

Someone wrote that Trump should learn from Truman. Probably. In '45, Truman knew Japan was defeated and had nothing to throw at the US, so he ordered the US military to drop every nuke they had on Japan (they only had 2 in August '45). In '49, the USSR developed a nuke. In '51, MacArthur wanted to nuke China, but Truman figured the USSR was a close ally of China and would provide them with an umbrella, so he fired MacArthur (as well he should have done). Now the 'experts' are saying the lesson Trump should learn is the one from '45, not the one from '51, while Russia and China are as weak as Japan was in '45, before they get as strong as the USSR was.

Concerned Scientists say the Doomsday Clock is 2 minutes before midnight. Pollyannas, those Concerned Scientists.