Wednesday, October 3, 2018

What's next in Syria???

Russia said they would support the Syrian Arab Army to liberate Idlib from the terrorists. However, when Turkey said the full might of the Turkish armed forces would defend the peaceful pro-democracy forces fighting the evil Syrian regime (not to mention getting rid of all the Kurds in the northern 5th or so of Syria) Russia backed down and said Idlib would return to its status as an Ottoman colony. Russia's logistics fighting Turkey are not good. Russia has two of the greatest defensive generals the world has ever seen: General January and General February, but they only defend Mother Russia, not the Russian armed forces fighting in Syria.

Then something happened. The Israeli version is that the Syrians, seeing the Israelis professionally destroying a legitimate target, fired S-200 anti-missiles in all directions. Meanwhile, the Russians had not activated their IFF device, even though they were given ample warning from Israel that a legitimate target would be destroyed. The result was that the Syrians destroyed a Russian plane, and Israel had nothing to do with it. The Russians lied that Israeli planes were shooting their missiles from behind the Russian plane, and that the S-200 had no IFF, so the Syrian attempt to shoot down the missiles destroyed the Russian plane and it was Israel's fault. Israel says all their fighters were in International airspace or flying over Israeli territory, and the Russian map showing the Israeli planes behind the Russian plane was completely fake.

Russia said it would therefore deliver some S-300 missiles sold to Syria many years ago. Israel and the US said this would be a grave violation of International Law, and if anyone--Russians or Syrians--shot down an Israeli plane, there would be severe consequences. I wasn't sure if the S-300s would actually be delivered, but the Russians showed them being unloaded in Syria. They will be operational on 20 Oct, and Russia says any Israeli plane that attempts to bomb Syria after that date will be shot down. The US says its intelligence shows no S-300s were actually delivered, but if they are, it could mean the total destruction of Russia.

And here we are.

Probably, the Russian video is not the Photoshop the US claims that it is, so one must believe that Syria will have the S-300 operational on 20 Oct, as promised. However, the Israeli Air Force is one of the most advanced in the world. Maybe they have ECM that can neutralise the S-300 just as they have neutralised the S-200. We won't know until sometime on or after 20 Oct. If Israel manages another of its bombing raids without losing a single plane, we'll know the S-300 is not as advanced as advertised. If an Israeli jet gets shot down, we'll have to see what, if anything the US does. The US cat has gobbled up mouse after mouse after mouse, but now it seems to be looking at what it thinks is just another mouse, but is actually a bear.

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