US Debt Ceiling

 As usual, the dimmycrats say the US might default and it's all the raypublicans' fault, while the raypublicans say it's the opposite.

Both agree that, if the other side does not cave, it means a global disaster.

I've watched this movie many times.

First, the Secretary of the Treasury says the US is about to hit the debt ceiling and the Congress must act to raise it or suspend it. I think that was in 2022.

Then the Secretary of the Treasury says the US has hit the debt ceiling, but there's a way to finagle finances to function, but not for much longer. This was in January 2023.

Then the Secretary of the Treasury announces the date when the US really will hit the debt ceiling and that will be a total disaster, that was in February 2023, when she said the drop-dead date will be 1 June 2023. When that happens, she says, Social Security and Medicare and the Defence and all payments on US government notes and bonds will stop, the US will be in default, the value of all US notes and bonds will collapse, and will take the whole world economy with it, so Congress absolutely must act NOW.

As I said, I've seen this over and over and over. Sometimes the Congress caves. Sometimes they keep procrastinating until the Secretary of the Treasury announces that the US government has really hit the debt ceiling.

Then disaster. Every US National Park and Museum must close, non-essential Federal Workers must go home without pay, essential Federal Workers must work without pay. For those who did not have a reservation to go to a National Park or Museum, they don't really notice anything except that the Secretary of the Treasury and all the news channels are yelling that the Congress now absolutely, positively must raise or suspend the debt ceiling.

Federal workers don't get paid for about a fortnight, then the Congress caves and raises the debt ceiling and the president signs it, and all the Federal workers get all their back pay, even those who were sitting at home and not doing any work. All the US National Parks and Museums reopen. And Life Goes On.

But Secretary Yellen says this time, she really will stop Social Security and Medicare and stop all payments on US government notes and bonds. That's not really legal, Social Security and Medicare are not paid with US $$$ that are covered by the debt ceiling, they're covered by the Social Security and Medicare Funds. Likewise, the Federal Law says all the US military must continue to bomb places like Iraq and Syria and get paid for doing it. So what will Secretary Yellen really do?

No one will have any idea until she announces that the US has really hit the debt ceiling.

Will she make it worse than it's been every other time the US hit the debt ceiling? Can she?

I guess we might find out, but the 1 June is almost certainly a fake date just to try to get the Congress to cave. And it's not clear what it will take to raise the debt ceiling. The raypublican House, the dimmycrat Senate, and president Brandon all have to agree on the bill to raise the ceiling, and now the Senate says they will not pass any of the House proposed bills, and the President says he will veto any bill except the one he's demanding. So it is not looking like they'll smoke a peace pipe before Secretary Yellen says the US has really hit the limit and must stop spending. And it's not clear when that will be or what Yellen will do about it.

But we might find out if the Congress don't cave.