In 2012, Graham Allister wrote "The Thucydides Trap," that, with the fall of the USSR, the US became Global Hegemon, and 75% of the time, hegemons fight tooth and nail to keep their hegemony, so it was very likely that the US would go to war with the PRC.
Crystal Balls have their limitations, and Russia got uppity, so the US decided to provoke Russia into attacking the Ukraine by threatening to make the Ukraine part of NATO with US military bases, and with nukes that could hit Russia in less than a minute, too quickly for Russia to respond thereby removing Russian MAD. This was a brilliant plan. The entire Russian economy was based on selling energy to the West and using the money to buy everything Russia needed from the West, so, when Russia attacked the Ukraine, the sanctions destroyed the Russian economy and the Ukraine, armed with advanced US weapons, easily defeated the entire Russian military with their "outmoded and inept" weapons (as the Western media describe them). Plus, of course, Russia had no money to pay their military, so they suffered a quick and total defeat and we'll have regime change in just a fortnight.
Russia's complete and total defeat has remained just a fortnight away in all the Western media since March 2022. Any suggestion that Russia might possibly be able to win the war is strictly prohibited, no major new outlet can allow any reporter to write such an article, and all those writing for the alternative media are denounced as fools or Russian agents spreading misinformation that no American with a 2-or-more-digit IQ would ever believe.
But now it is time to provoke the PRC into attacking Taiwan. Sending the Speaker of the House seemed like a good start, and a senior member of the PRC said the PLA Air Force would prevent her aeroplane from landing in Taiwan, but then the PRC did nothing.
It turns out that the PRC say they will have a World Class military in 2027. It appears they will not take on the US before 2027. The US know about the 2027 goal, and insist that war must be provoked before 2026.
Back in the '70s, when Kissinger was running the US, he convinced the US to appease Mao in order to pry the PRC away from the USSR. The US agreed that Taiwan was a part of the PRC, and downgraded their Taiwan Embassy to an Institute. The Institute is the same as an Embassy, but the name has been changed.
The agreement Kissinger got the PRC to accept was that the US and Taiwan would always say that Taiwan was just another province of the PRC, no different from any other province, but would act as if Taiwan were an independent nation.
So the US were always careful not to do anything that made it terribly and painfully obvious that Taiwan were an American neo-colony. But that was Before.
The PRC were, formerly, a valuable resource for the US leadership. The PRC provided cheap labour, so the US could lay off expensive US workers and replace them with cheap PRC workers and greatly increase the profits of US oligarchs (and US politicians who got generous baksheesh).
But the PRC are getting too strong, strong enough to challenge US Global Hegemony, so we need a proxy war in Taiwan where the sanction will destroy the PRC economy and Taiwan, with advanced US weapons, will easily defeat the PLA.
But, to be safe, that proxy war needs to take place before 2026. And the PRC seem like a very cautious fish, not rising to any US bait.
The provocations will, of course, get more and more provocative. The new Speaker has said he's going to Taiwan. The US is talking about treaties with Taiwan (before, they could never be called 'treaties'). What will it take to get the PRC to invade and try to conquer Taiwan, and thereby be utterly destroyed?
The US will try anything and everything to get their proxy war in Taiwan before 2026.
And the PRC will put up with a lot that they would never have put up with before, at least until 2027.
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