Monday, September 12, 2022

Thucydides Next?

With the collapse of the USSR, the US had no competitor, no nation strong enough to challenge the US. Russia and the PRC always supported all US resolutions in the UN Security Council since they knew the US could make them trouble they could not handle. So they both voted to let the US destroy Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. The US was Global Hegemon.

But in 2012, Graham Allison wrote a paper called the Thucydides Trap, that every hegemon will fight tooth and nail to prevent any nation rising to where it could challenge the hegemon.

So the US was starting to notice that the PRC was rising rapidly, and Allison wrote that it was more likely that the US would take steps to stop the rise of the PRC while the PRC was still too weak to stop the US.

Then the US noticed that Russia was also rising and needed to be brought down, and so pushed Russia with a threat of putting so much of NATO in the Ukraine that Russia no longer had MAD. If Russia let NATO install nukes and ABM and several divisions of NATO troops, Russia would have no choice but to do as NATO demanded, to split into several small, unarmed nations that could never challenge the US.

The Western media reported that Russia's invasion of the Ukraine was a total disaster for Russia. The Ukraine, armed with advanced Western weapons, easily destroyed the Russian invasion force, killed almost all the soldiers, and destroyed just about all the tanks and aeroplanes. Plus the sanctions have completely destroyed the Russian economy. The media promised that the Russian regime that ordered the illegal and unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine will collapse very soon, Russia will owe massive reparations, so all Russian energy will go to US oligarchs, and Europe will once again have plenty of energy, so the ordinary Europeans must put up with cold showers for just a few weeks to save Democracy.

Only Russia kept slowly adding territory until last week, when the Russians withdrew all their soldiers from the entire Kharkov oblast, leaving behind a LOT of equipment, and also many ethnic Russians who are now being tortured and killed after Russia promised to defend them and to never abandon them. Russia was unable to stand up to the Ukraine armed with advanced Western weapons. The Western media are delighted and say that the loss of the Kharkov oblast is just the start, the Ukraine will very shortly have evicted all the Russian military from the Ukraine, including the Crimea, and this will force the Russian regime to fall and the new regime will be completely compliant with all NATO demands.

Is there anything Russia can do except surrender? Quite some discussion, with many pro-Russians saying 'No!'. The Kharkov Oblast was critical, without it, Russia cannot defend the territory they managed to acquire over the past 6 months, that Russia lost more territory in three days than they gained in the last 4 months, so the Russian invasion is finished.

Of course, some say that Kharkov Oblast was very hard to defend, and by withdrawing before the Ukraine army arrived, all those Russian troops were saved for another day. We don't know which now, but we might find out very soon.


Meanwhile, the original Thucydides conjecture, that the US must take down the PRC, is back on the table. The US want to dismantle the PRC the same way they are trying to dismantle Russia: get the PRC to attack Taiwan, then give Taiwan massive Western armaments and intelligence that will let Taiwan destroy the PLA without costing a single Western life, and sanctions will destroy the PRC economy. The US want this to happen before 2025, since they see the PRC rising, and figure it's a guaranteed victory for the US and Taiwan before 2025, and rather a danger than Taiwan might lose after 2030.

So first, the US sent Pelosi, which infuriated the PRC, but all the PRC did was send a few warships to sail around Taiwan. Not enough.

So now the US has ordered Taiwan not to sell a single chip to the PRC, and the PRC desperately needs many of the chips that only Taiwan can produce, so the US are sure that either the PRC will watch their economy collapse for lack of Taiwan chips, or they will attack Taiwan, and either of these will accomplish the US goal of destroying the PRC the same way the Western media assure us that Russia have already been totally destroyed.

So far, the PRC still haven't done anything. But as more and more factories cannot complete their products without those chips, what will the PRC do? What can the PRC do?

I guess we'll find out fairly soon.

Will the US succeed in removing both Russia and the PRC as possible challengers to US hegemony, or will something go wrong with the carefully contrived plan of the US?

Again, we'll find out.

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