Saturday, August 5, 2023

New Top 5???

 Looking up the top economies by PPP GDP, I got two versions of the Top 5.

The most common version is:

1) The PRC;

2) The US;

3) India;

4) Japan; and

5) Germany.

That's the Wikipedia and IMF Top 5.

But the World Bank has a slightly different Top 5:

1) The PRC;

2) The US;

3) India;

4) Japan; and

5) Russia.

So 3 of the top 5 economies in the world are all in BRICS. It was in 2001 that Goldman Sachs said one must watch the 4 economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, or BRIC. A lot has happened since then. The BRIC added South Africa and formed an organisation of 5 countries that have regular meetings, even though two of them (India and the PRC) are at war with each other. The PRC were also at war with the USSR. It seems the Western Europeans drew all the world's official boundaries and expect everyone to accept them. In the case of the PRC and India, there has been a boundary dispute since 1949, with a low-level war where most weapons are banned, but it's high in the mountains so they fight with fists standing on the edge of cliffs, and about 20 soldiers a year get killed.

In the case of the PRC and the USSR, there is no more USSR, and Russia seem to know that Russia is the 3rd and weakest Great Power, militarily minuscule in comparison to both the US and to the PRC. So Russia accepted the PRC boundary at all 8,000 of the two countries' boundary disputes, so all are now resolved. Meanwhile, Russia wanted to be part of Europe for 300 years, but Europe hates all things Russian and said they would not trade with Russia, so Russia sells almost all their vast energy production to India and the PRC.

Meanwhile, Germany used to have access to limitless, cheap Russian energy, almost of that gone now, so Germany are now paying four times as much for energy and their economy is struggling.

Meanwhile, Russia are selling to India and the PRC and getting as much revenue as before, and the PRC and India are very happy at the terms Russia give them. Not to mention that, before, they had to pay for energy with US$ and now Russia accept the rupee and the RMB (or yuan or kuai if you prefer), so now Saudi accept the rupee and the RMB, just to stay competitive.

So it's looking real that three of the top five economies in the world, at least at PPP, are in the BRICS. And Brazil are rising rapidly. Heck, the way things are going, the BRICS might end up the top 5.

And the G7 will be the I7, the Irrrelevant 7.

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