Saturday, April 10, 2021

The JCPOA

 Before Trump, every American president had worked for his party since he was a teenager. One had to go to all the party meetings and get to know the party leadership (it helped if your parents were senior members of the Party and put you in for a future leader). You passed out leaflets, asked people if you could put up signs for your party in their yard, and generally worked for the party. If the leadership liked you, they put you up for local, then statewide, then governor or Congresscritter. And finally, for a very few of a very few, they got put up as a presidential candidate.

But the Republicans lost to Obama twice and decided to let the rank and file vote on the nominee, and they got Trump who could not possibly win. And then he won. And he had no idea. 

Every president, the day he becomes President Elect, should hand in 4,000 names of people who have ample qualifications and who will have his back. Trump did not know anyone qualified, took a list of names from some Republican 'friends' and nominated 4,000 #NeverTrumps who did nothing but try to get rid of him. So Trump accomplished very little. Obama built far more wall, deported far more Hispanics, and did much more to support the fossil fuel industry, all while saying he was against a Wall, never deported a single Hispanic, and was doing all he could to stop climate change. But what Obama said sounded good.

Trump said the US needed a Wall that would make that thing in China look like a picket fence, that we needed to deport every last Hispanic, that we must support fossil fuels since Climate Change is a hoax. Everything Trump said sounded terrible, but Trump didn't really do much, unlike his predecessors, hypocrites who said all the right things and did all the wrong things.

Obama got Iran to sign the JCPOA, part of a planned double-act with Clinton.

Before, Bill Clinton and Bush, Jr did the double act on Saddam. Clinton imposed harsh sanctions, no medicine or food, so it is estimated 500,000 children died, then offered to end all sanctions with promises of no regime change and also substantial US investment in Iraq to rebuild after the Bush, Sr bombing, if Saddam would just promise to get rid of all WMD with UN inspections. Saddam agreed.

The UN inspectors verified no WMD, the CIA announced it had found secret WMD that the UN inspectors missed, and Bush, Jr ordered carpet bombing, total destruction of Iraq, and handing Saddam over to a lynch mob. Of course, Bush, Jr owned lots of oil, oil that cost $40 to pump out of the ground, and oil prices were about $30. After the war, oil was $150, and Bush, Jr went from impecunious to filthy rich. Plus Bush, Jr got re-elected in 2004, having avoided his father's horrible mistake of a 100 hour war. Bush, Jr's Iraq war is still going strong after 18 years, and looks likely to last at least another 18. That's the kind of war one needs to get re-elected in the US.

Then Bush, Jr and Obama did the same double act on Qaddafi, who also fell for it, and who also was murdered, either by US agents, or with the help of US agents, and Libya was totally destroyed. Before Qaddafi, the Libyan economy was based on slave souqs. The evil Qaddafi closed all the slave souqs, nationalised the oil, and had Libyans with the best lifestyle in all of Africa with that stolen US oil money. Fortunately, the US had Obama, who, after killing Obama, returned all the Libyan oil to its proper owners, the US oil companies, and reopened all the slave souqs, so Libya has its old, ante-electric economy back, and all the Iraqis and Libyans are much better off than they were under Saddam and Qaddafi, who provided everyone with cheap, reliable electricity and clean, safe drinking water, two curses no Arab wants or needs.

And then Obama planned the same double-act with Secretary Clinton after she became president, with Secretary Clinton forcing regime change in Iran and killing off all the Ayatollahs. Only Trump won the election. Oops.

Obama said Trump did not really win, the Russians stole the election, but still, Trump was elected and ran the US (badly) for four years.

In 2015, when Trump had become a credible candidate for US president, many news agencies wanted more information, so Russia paid one of Trump's friends, Flynn, to fly to Russia, where he said Trump's #1 priority would be regime change in Iran. Only Flynn was arrested shortly after Trump's election since the FBI said it was illegal for him to go to Russia, that trip to Russia made him a foreign agent. The FBI said they could also gaol his sons for many, many years, so Flynn agreed to a plea bargain, admitting he was guilty of betraying the US by flying to Russia (an admission he later tried to retract, but without success).

Obama, like Clinton and Bush, Jr before him, did not lift a single sanction on Iran, but many other nations, formerly afraid of offending the US, did start doing business with Iran. Then Trump announced a total blockade: no nation could trade with the US and with Iran. He ordered a woman arrested and gaoled for Life without Parole for selling a phone to China (and she's still under House Arrest in Canada, since China said they would execute many Canadian agents arrested in China if Canada sent her to the US, and Canada is too afraid of the US to let her return to China, so she stays in Canada). So every other nation, knowing they desperately needed trade with the US, stopped all trade with Iran. No food, no medicine.

Unlike Iraq, Iran produces enough food to feed itself (but would be much better off if it could trade), and produces much of its own medicine (but some advanced medications are beyond what Iran can make, and those who desperately need them are dying). Still, Iran did not collapse under Trump. And, with no UN certification that Iran had absolutely no WMD, nothing happened: no invasion, no carpet bombing, and no regime change under Trump. Some Iranians died for lack of medicine, and all were inconvenienced by the sanctions, but Iran is still there, in spite of both Saudi and Israel demanding that the US obliterate it and the incompetent Trump promising to do his best to achieve that deepest wish of America's two best friends.

But now the US once again has a 'normal' president, unlike the Trump years, and it's time to finish the double act. Iran must be convinced to get rid of all WMD, and, after the UN inspectors say there are absolutely no banned WMD, the CIA will say they found lots of WMD, and Biden will say 'Iran has to go,' just as St Hillary would have done had she been elected.

 Only Plan A remains: St Biden promises full sanctions relief right after the UN inspectors verify no WMD. And Iran says 'No UN inspectors until all sanctions are lifted.'

 For reasons that escape us all, but especially the Biden administration, Iran refuses to stop enriching uranium, and refuses to let UN inspectors verify no WMD, until after the US ends all sanctions, and that violates the official US play book that they followed to get rid of Saddam and Qaddafi. And St Biden always follows the official play book, he does not know how to handle the slightest deviation, so the Ayatollahs seem to have left the US stuck, for now.

The Plan remains, just as soon as the Ayatollahs do their part and get rid of all WMD with full UN inspections, the CIA will certify that it found a huge arsenal of hidden WMD that the UN inspectors missed, and then (and only then) will Biden order that long-planned regime change operation. But the Ayatollahs are not doing their part.

So we're waiting to see if anyone in the Biden administration can figure out a way around this impasse.

And we continue to deeply regret that the idiot American voters rejected the best candidate for president the US has ever had, St Hillary, in favour of the worst candidate for president the US has ever had, Trump, who has done nothing except sanctions about Venezuela and Iran and Russia, sanctions that did not work, and, while we're sure St Hillary would have forced regime change in all three of these evil, Autocratic nations, the useless Trump did nothing beyond Sanctions, ejecting diplomats, and naming new presidents like Navalny for Russia and Guidó for Venezuela who couldn't even manage to take office.

 We are sure St Biden will do much more than Trump did to force regime change in Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, but it would have been much, much better if the US voters had elected St Hillary, who would have moved the world forward, not back, and the Doomsday Clock would now be at half past midnight instead of 5 seconds before.

But we're all hoping Ss Biden and Harris will take us forward.

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