Mid-terms

Many are sure the Congress will go solid Blue in '19 after the Democrats sweep the mid-terms. But it's actually not at all clear what will happen. The Democrats are fairly certain to get more votes, just as they did in the 2016 election, but whether those votes will turn into a majority of seats in the Congress is not at all clear. The good Republicans Mr Gerry Mander and Mr James Corvus will do their best to hand the Congress over to the Republicans, even if most of the voters disagree with them. It's not clear how much Mr Gerry Mander and Mr James Corvus will be able to do, and we won't know until 7 Nov this year. The best source is Five Thirty Eight, but so far, they're only predicting that the Democrats are going to win the most votes, they haven't started on seats, yet (but they will as we get closer to the election).

Poker or Bridge?

Trump seems to think he's playing poker with a royal flush in clubs. Only he might be playing bridge, and getting outbid in spades.

Trump thinks the US is an indispensable trading partner to every other nation. So, if he threatens to stop all trade, they have to cave and agree to whatever Trump demands. He might be right. Again, he's playing as if he has a royal flush, but a) it's not clear he's playing poker, and even if he is, b) it's not clear he knows what his hole card is.

The Western media reports massive riots in Iran, that the government is very close to toppling. The official US version, developed by Bush, jr, is that Iran was responsible for the 9/11 attacks, and no Saudi was involved at all. Bush, jr said the Ayatollahs ordered the 9/11 attacks, and they were perpetrated by their co-religionists in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the DPRK. Bush, jr later said he'd missed 3: the 9/11 hijackers also included co-religionists of the Ayatollahs from Libya, Syria, and Cuba. Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya down, Iran, the DPRK, Syria, and Cuba to go.

Clinton promised Saddam lots of investment and sanctions relief for getting rid of all his WMD with inspectors. Saddam fell for it. Bush, jr made the same promise to Muammar, and he also fell for it. Iraq and Libya were 'liberated' and Saddam and Muammar were lynched. Obama made the same promise to Iran, but got a UN Security Council resolution and an agreement of the P5+1 and Iran, an agreement President Hillary would have said Iran was violating (and everyone would have jumped on board) or just forced regime change without bothering to abrogate. But all the media say Trump is only abrogating the agreement because Obama made it (they never said anything about Bush, jr abrogating Clinton's agreement with Saddam, or Obama abrogating Bush, jr's agreement with Muammar, and they would have strongly supported President Clinton's abrogation of the agreement with Iran).

The western media are now saying that Trump's sanctions against Iran are working, and regime change from an internal revolution is imminent; however, eastern media have no reports of any riots in Iran, and China says it will buy Iranian oil disirregardless. If China has to give up all trade with the US in exchange for Iranian oil, it says it will do so. Will China back down? And, with the new US tariffs, China wants to rebuild the Silk Road, with high speed rail connecting all of Eurasia, so Shanghai silks can ship to Cherbourg in less than 24 hours. India has been an enemy of China since the end of the British Empire in '47, but now India is on board the Chinese Silk Road, since it can't see that it has any other choice. And an interconnected Eurasia can get by without the US.

So is Trump getting the US back to the halcyon days of the 19th century when it had very limited trade with the rest of the world? I guess we'll find out.

Trump, the media, and MAD

Every president since Truman wanted a unified Korea, Parked with US military bases all along the Yalu River. Truman would have gotten one, but the PRC and the USSR made it cost more than the US could afford. Every president since Truman tried to convince the DPRK that the US meant no harm, so, if they'd disarm, the US would grant great benefits. All lies, of course, and neither Kim's grandfather, nor father, nor Kim are as gullible as Saddam or Muammar, who agreed to disarm with inspections in exchange for sanctions relief and help developing. Of course, the US presidents all lied, and Saddam and Muammar had their nations 'liberated' and themselves lynched. Clinton promised Kim's grandfather and father lots of money for development if they'd allow inspectors. Kim's father agreed. Clinton had lied, and gave not 1¢, and Bush, jr put the DPRK on the Axis of Evil, responsible for 9/11, and scheduled for regime change. A few days later, Kim's father set off what he said was a nuke. He lied! He said he'd given up all his nukes, and allowed inspectors who'd all been lied to. What could be worse? A terrible dictator who lies! Regime change had to be put on hold for the DPRK, but went ahead in Iraq and Libya, and is now scheduled for Iran. But it's still far too expensive for the US to try regime change in the DPRK.

The US media says Trump was a fool. He agreed to stop the military exercises. Korea impeached Park, a hawk, and elected Moon, who called Kim about peace talks, and Kim sent some athletes to be part of the united Korea team, met with Moon, and scheduled a 2nd meeting. But then military exercises started, and Kim was a no-show. No cancellation, just a no-show when Moon was waiting. It was only after the exercises ended that Kim met Moon (again) and then Trump.

When Kim promised to destroy all his nuke testing facilities, the western media all said: 'They were already destroyed by the last test. He's not destroying anything.' Lots of reporters were allowed into the DPRK as observers. They looked in, saw what looked like a testing facility (but they weren't experts), and saw the facility destroyed. 'All faked,' according to the western media, Kim got Trump to stop working for rapid regime change, which is Trump's #1 job, and destroyed nothing. Trump needs to get back to work. The DPRK can only destroy the RoK, and all the US assets there are a cheap price to pay to keep the US safe. Or so say all the western corporate media.

Kim has proven he has nukes (and, for those who know nuclear physics, he probably has hundreds), and ICBMs that can reach the eastern US. So, if the US tries regime change, Kim can do enough damage to destroy the US economy. He can't totally obliterate the US, leaving the whole place depopulated, but it doesn't take nearly that much for MAD, just enough to completely disrupt the economy. Kim could manage an EMP strike that erases every single bank record, leaving not a trace of any US money inside the US, and also fry all the electric distribution networks, leaving everyone with no electricity at all. That's enough for MAD. The US response would leave absolutely nothing of the Korean peninsula, so Kim would only start MAD if the US shows it's determined to force regime change and make all of Korea a US neo-colony.

But the western media says Kim has just a few nukes, and no way to get any of them to the US (obviously false premises) so Kim does not have MAD. Actually, it's at least a 75% chance that he does.

Of course, when Putin did his demo that Russia still has MAD, the western media said it was all Photoshop. After the evil dictator Gorbachev was replaced by the good, free, democratic leader Yeltsin, the USSR military and industry and education and healthcare were all destroyed, as well they should have been, and Russia could not challenge the US. But in late '13, Putin said Russia was not giving up its bases in Syria. The US has been trying to overthrow the evil Syrian regime that's letting Russians squat on NATO military bases, but Trump is falling down on the job. If only we'd elected St Hillary who promised regime change in Syria and Russia on Day 1, Putin would have known he'd have to step down since no one can face off St Hillary, so he stole the election (with help from Trump). Evidence? No need. Ss Obama and Hillary said so, and they cannot tell a lie, so their word is irrefutable proof, and is clearly justification for regime change in Russia. After all, all the Obamabots have for their creed: 'Obama said it, I believe it, and that settles it.'

And every cockroach strongly supports Ss Obama and Hillary, since the US trying regime change in Russia will leave all us cockroaches safe from being stepped on.

Trumped

I have problems with the Obamabots and Clintonbots who say St Obama was the Greatest President the US has Ever Had, and St Hillary would have been better, while Trump is the absolute Worst President Ever. I also have problems with the Trumpeters who say Trump is one of the best presidents the US has ever had, and Obama was the worst. Both were terrible. Obama talked a good game about keeping the water safe, while allowing it to be full of lead. Trump says he's getting rid of all those job-killing regulations that stop mining companies from dumping their waste into the drinking water. Either way, the water in many US cities was unsafe. At least with Trump, he admits it?

It's hard to evaluate policies until one sees results. Trump threatened China with heavy tariffs and had banned the licensing of Android to one Chinese smart phone maker, putting them out of business. After talks, Trump unbanned the licensing of Android, and said no new tariffs on China. China had joined the WTO as an under-developed nation, allowed high tariffs so it could build up its industries. China no longer deserves those high tariffs and should play on a level field, and the Chinese agreed: they said they'd slash their tariffs and guarantee an increase of $hundreds of billions a year in US imports. A huge victory for Trump.

Then the New York Times screamed, 'Trump is giving valuable secrets to a Communist dictatorship and putting the US in danger.' I didn't think Trump read the New York Times, but the day after that article came out, he announced that he was banning the licensing of Android, which means only the US can make any smart phones (the New York Times wanted Trump to allow Android to be licensed to all the US allies: the UK, EU/ RoK, and Japan).

And Trump is putting heavy tariffs not just on China, but on the UK, EU, Canada, and Mexico. So China responded in kind. New, high tariffs on US imports. And the UK, EU, Canada and Mexico are also planning retaliation. Senators Smoot and Hawley are smiling.

And yet...

As I said, one cannot evaluate policies until one sees results. Will US manufacturing return to the days when more than half of Americans had good paying jobs in factories? Or will the US find itself back in the '30s? I'll wait before I say that Trump turned a major victory into a colossal mess. I have a guess now, but I've learned that it's always foolish to make any predictions with respect to the future (predictions about the past are OK, though).

Back in the, back in the DPRK

It looked like Trump was actually going to accomplish something useful. Kim told Moon he'd be willing to denuclearise the entire Korean peninsula. Then Bolton and Pence and then Trump promised Kim the 'Libyan option'. The official Trump version was that Libya refused to give up its nukes, so the US forced regime removal, and the only way Kim can avoid regime removal is to immediately give up all his nukes, with inspections. Trump seems to think Kim is as stupid and gullible as Saddam and Muammar. Pity he's not.

Trump still wants regime change in Iran, which (they think) is still safe enough: no WMDs, no MAD unless the Friends of Iran decide to do something (if Iran has any Friends that are that close). A Libyan-style regime removal in Iran seems possible, with little cost to the US, and big benefits for Trump from his Friends on the other side of the Gulf with Two Names.

Trump is probably just being Trump and making idle threats against the DPRK. The US media say Kim can only destroy all US assets in the RoK, and are split: some say, 'Nuke now, the RoK is a cheap price to pay to get rid of the DPRK,' while others say, 'The US has too much invested in the RoK that would be destroyed, so learn to live with the DPRK for now, and keep trying that Libyan option.'

If the US starts to force regime change, Kim has said he won't waste a single one of his many nukes on the RoK, he plans to deploy every last one in the US. No reason to think he can't. He has an ICBM that can reach the eastern US, so a Warday strike would be easy. The DPRK smuggled nerve agent into Malaysia, so smugglers might bring in many bombs and set them off in major cities. The US can completely obliterate the DPRK, but the DPRK has MAD, so they can do enough damage that the US won't be much of a world power after the war is over. Not to mention that nuking the DPRK will annoy the PRC and Russia no end. Trump's best approach to the DPRK is to just continue to bluster, something he enjoys doing on a daily basis.

The DPRK isn't insane enough to start anything, but it will do its best to finish any attempt at regime change by the US.

Next after the DPRK

Kim continued what his father started. His father announced he'd tested a nuke (seismic evidence inconclusive). Maybe he had, maybe it was fake. But Kim tested what were definitely nukes, and also launched one ICBM that could have reached the east coast of the US. A lot in the US said, 'He doesn't have a working ICBM yet, so we need to nuke him now to keep the US safe. He'll retaliate by obliterating all of South Korea, but that's a small price to pay.' Of course, Kim has subs and smugglers who might have gotten a lot of nukes into the US. Or he might have an EMP device (read War Day). But then the RoK impeached Park and got Moon, who wanted peace. Then Xi called Kim to Beijing for a Headmaster to student chat, after which Kim announced he was completely finished with testing, and the RoK said he'd told them he'd give up all his nukes. Then Kim and Moon met and signed a treaty to completely denuclearise the entire peninsula, beginning this week. Wow! Moon says Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.

 ***

The US MSM says Trump must be removed ASAP for colluding with Russia to steal the election from St Hillary. And Russia is guilty of a crime worse than the sinking of the Maine, or Saddam's attack on the US on 9/11 and his planned attack with nuclear weapons that was stopped just in the nick of time (and most Americans 'know' the Spanish sank the Maine and Saddam was responsible for 9/11 and had nukes pointed at the US with fuses lit, fuses the US military snuffed out just in the nick of time; let us not confuse American history with the fact that the old steam engines often exploded and sank ships, or that Saddam had NEW WMD which only the most clever and patriotic can see; to keep things simple, we have 3 'obvious' casus belli).

The US MSM says Russia is about as powerful and Panama was in '89, relative to the US military of 2018, which has gotten immensely stronger since '89, while Russia's military has collapsed, so regime removal in Russia should be a top priority of the US, and Trump isn't doing anything because he's Putin's puppet. Putin did a slide show about Russia's new WMD that guarantee MAD, and the US MSM said they were all Photoshopped. The MSM promise that when the US threatens, Putin, having nothing, will meekly resign. So those Concerned Scientists who say the Doomsday Clock is 2 minutes before midnight are a bunch of Pollyannas.

***

The next war Trump plans is, of course, Iran. In '15, General Flynn said regime change in Iran would be a top priority of the Trump administration. But the last two presidents waited until their 3rd year in office for a big regime removal, so '19 seems like the most likely year, unless the MSM and Bibi put enough pressure on Trump that he moves the war up a year. Bush, jr, Obama, and Trump all agree: the 9/11 attack was ordered by the Ayatollahs of Iran, and perpetrated by their co-religionists, Afghans, Iraqis, Libyans, Syrians, North Koreans, and Cubans. And who could question Bush, jr, Obama, and Trump? Since all 3 agree, it must be factual! The US Congress voted to investigate if anyone from Saudi Arabia might have had anything to do with 9/11, and Obama naturally vetoed such a ridiculous bill.

And Iran definitely doesn't have any nukes it could use, so the war should be safe for the US, and that's the most important thing. That, and the profits.

***

But the US MSM doesn't want the administration (preferably excised of Trump) distracted by Iran from forcing the regime change in Russia that's a much higher priority for them.

Top Secret Phone Call

'Hello, Don.'

'Privet, Vlad. We have to talk. You know May and Macron are facing dark and story nights, and I'm facing a dark and Stormy night, so we absolutely have to bomb Syria, we have no choice. You don't have to worry about elections, so I'm asking you to let us. You said you'd shoot down all the planes launching the missiles, and then I'd have to respond, and then you'd have to respond, and who knows where it might end up going?'

'OK. Take down these coordinates.' [redacted] 'Got them?'

'Yes, Vlad, I'm recording the call.'

'Good. You may shoot at all of them on Saturday, 14 April, at 5 am Moscow time, that will be 8 pm your time, so you'll be able to go on prime time TV and say you've destroyed the Syrian poison gas production facilities. If one of your planes shoots anywhere else, or any other time, we'll shoot it down. Understand?'

'Perfectly.'

'I'll feign outrage, and say you destroyed a bunch of peaceful chemical research facilities, and your people will say I'm lying (as I will be) and that's proof they were illegal poison gas facilities, and that must be the end of it. OK?'

'Deal. Spasiba, Vlad.'

'Do svidania, Don.'