CoVid-19 Update 1

A pandemic growing exponentially means that the numbers change rapidly. China had about a dozen sick and no deaths in December, 2019, 547 cases and 17 deaths by 22 January, about 10,000 cases and 200 dead by the end of  January, 2020 and 80,000 infections and 5,000 dead by the end of February (but very few deaths and new infections after February).

And the world now have a number of deaths that is far more than than the usual range for January through May, and all due to CoViD-19

As the US news says, exponential growth meant that, if Trump had called for a lockdown just one week earlier, he might have saved 50,000 lives, and the European countries could have reduced their number of deaths by 50% if they'd acted a week earlier than they did.

CNN blames both Trump and China for the 100,000+ CoViD-19 deaths in the US. According to CNN, China should have known CoViD-19 was deadly on 14 January, but they didn't do anything before 20 January (except try to keep the infection quiet, to deny that the novel virus was contagious and deadly). And they had a big Chinese New Year banquet for 40,000 in Wuhan that resulted in about 40,000 infections, so China could have saved most of the 5,000 lives lost if they'd acted just 6 days sooner.

Blaming China is very popular in the West. And China is guilty of two things: they knew that wildlife markets were dangerous in 2003 after the SARS outbreak, and they said they were going to ban all wildlife markets, but they didn't (they finally got around to banning all wildlife markets this year, and this time, they almost certainly mean it, and if China is serious about banning wildlife markets, there won't be any in China ever again). And, of course, China definitely delayed at least 6 days after they should have known better (and they admit to 3 weeks). But all other charges are obviously false.

Compared to the Pandemic of 1918 - 1919, the Spanish flu, CoViD-19 is, so far, not much. Trying to look up the Spanish flu, death estimates range from 17 million to 200 million (in other words, historians don't have a clue how many actually died, but they're sure it was a lot: the median guess is about 50 million). The world population today is 4 times what it was in 1918, so, even if one takes the lowest estimate of deaths as 17 million, that would be equivalent to more than 60 million deceased now, and the current number of dead is less than 400,000 (but it's still going up).

Of course, history says the Spanish flu had 3 waves, and not many died in the first wave, it was the 2nd wave when most died, and we're still in the first wave of CoViD-19.

The second wave of the Spanish flu started in October, 1918, so we won't know how bad CoViD-19 is going to be before 2021. But if it's anything like the Spanish flu, we'll have more than 65 million dead before June, 2021, based on the lowest estimate of how many died from the Spanish flu and the increased population (but it's not looking like that's going to happen from our current perspective, since the rate at which people are dying is already down from its peak; and we're all hoping we'll have some effective medicines for CoViD-19 before 2021). However, if there's a second wave like the Spanish flu before we have any effective medicines ...

CoViD-19 Pandemic???

Numbers turned out to be hard to come by. Trying to look up the 'normal' annual number of deaths from respiratory infections proved much more difficult than I thought it would be. For that matter, looking up the average number of deaths per month didn't turn up much in a Google search, only some data from before 2017. But, after gleaning all that Google could find, it looks like the total dead from all respiratory infections varies greatly year to year, and the total for this year is well within normal limits.

So I think it's clear that the White Horseman of pestilence is not the problem it's being presented as. Total CoViD-19 deaths in the US were mostly caused by the states that shipped old people with CoViD-19 off to nursing homes where everyone caught the disease, and, since they all had DNR orders, all were allowed to die. That's most of the CoViD-19 deaths in the US. The number of deaths in the US could be much, much lower if they hadn't maximised it to empty nursing homes of elderly residents, many with dementia, that many figured the US would be much better off without.

US newspapers have a problem: they hate China and they hate Trump, and say everything coming out of China is a lie and everything Trump says is a lie, so when Trump says China deliberately started the pandemic, and China says they didn't, it's hard to call both of them liars at the same time (but the establishment media are all trying their best). They're saying Trump is completely and totally responsible for every one of the 90,000 deaths from CoViD-19 in the US, and also that China is completely and totally responsible.

Gordon Chang wrote a book, The Coming Collapse of China, back in 2001 saying China would be back to peasants unable to grow enough to feed themselves in a very few years. Everything in the book was completely wrong from beginning to end, but no matter, he's now considered one of the best experts on China, and he says CoViD-19 has killed millions of Chinese (not the 5,000 they claim), that it started before November 2019 and was a major problem China covered up completely until January 20, 2020, and China deliberately sent people out to infect every other nation so China's economy would not be harmed by China having the only epidemic. Again, just about everything he says is easily proved false, but he's now hailed as the World's Greatest Expert on China. Chang is now saying China must acknowledge its guilt and pay reparations on the order of $20 trillion (for starters), enough to finally make his 2001 book come true. And Pompeo agrees with him.

So the White Horseman is now being used as an excuse to bring out the Red Horseman of War. After Vietnam, every president starting with Reagan started a shooting war in his 3rd year. Starting with Grenada, then Panama, two countries with People living in Darkness who were very profitably (for the US) brought the light. Until Trump, who started trade wars with everyone his 2nd year, but no new shooting wars. Yet. (He tried with Iran, but they refused the bait.) It should be noted that Obama wanted a trade war with China, but one where the US had a treaty with all the Pacific nations except China to cut China off as much as possible. (The treaty also said that most national laws would no longer apply to corporations, so it would not be possible to sue a chemical plant if it leaked and killed a bunch of people, thereby protecting the Important Rentiers of the World.)

Americans are strangely split: a little less than half figure Trump is one of our greatest presidents and Obama was one of our worst, and a little more than half figure Trump's the absolute worst and Obama was one of the best, when both pretty much did the same things. (OK, I must admit, Obama had a lot more style than Trump, a fact that really appeals to the Obamabots and infuriates the Trumpeters. But style ain't substance!)

Not much time left between now and the election. Trump keeps withdrawing from the arms control deals his predecessors signed, but not much sign he's doing anything provocative after withdrawing. Makes the US Defence Industry happy, and gets condemned by those that criticise everything Trump does, starting every morning when he gets out of bed on what they're sure must be the wrong side. But not all that much in the press about the US doing anything new after cancelling the arms control agreements.

And, after murdering an Iranian with a clever trap (an offer to meet MbS from Saudi Arabia to talk peace, on a specific date and at a specific time so he could easily be tracked and droned), not much more military action under Trump, except continuing all the wars he inherited from Obama.

But there's Chang and Pompeo who both say war with China is necessary to avenge the pandemic. And China ain't no Grenada or Panama.

Choice of Equestrians?

The Book of Revelations (the last book in the Christian Bible) briefly mentions some Seals and four horsemen. In the original Greek, the first, on a White Horse, is never identified (my commentary says he is probably a Parthian, which was an old word for Iranian; so one suspects the author of the book felt he had been cheated by an Iranian, possibly in a card game or a real estate deal). The second, on a Red Horse is identified as War. The third, on a Black Horse, is a merchant who charges a day's wages for a kilo of wheat. The fourth, on a Pale Horse, is Death.

In the 19th Century, the New Revised Standard version came out with a new translation, and suggested the Four Horsemen might be Pestilence, War, Famine, and Death (it's not clear from the translation that's what the author or the translator really had in mind).

The Chapter in Revelations is Chapter 6, which is actually called the Chapter of Seals, but at the turn of the previous century, someone introduced the Four Horsemen as the title of the Chapter. And the name of the book used to be the transliteration of the original Greek name of the book, Apocalypse, so there were lots of English essays about the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (there might have been essays in other languages, but I wouldn't know). The White Horseman was Pestilence, some kind of pandemic like the plague, the Red Horseman was War, the Black Horseman was Famine, and the Pale Horseman was Death. Except for the Red Horseman and the Pale Horseman, this doesn't match the Bible, but it will do.

Back in the '30s, someone wrote a novella, Pale Horse, Pale Rider about the Flu Epidemic of 1918-1919, a book that might be relevant again with CoViD19 (although that was about the White Horseman and the flu pandemic).

Now it looks like we have a choice between the White Horseman and the Red Horseman. As it says in the Bible, 'Sufficient unto the Day...'.

The White Horseman

The new virus, CoViD19, spreads rapidly. Everyone who has it passes it on to about 3 others on average. The only good news is that the rate of increase peaked at 70% in China and is now down to 8% in China, and about 5% outside of China.

Inside China, it's killed 2.5% of those diagnosed with the virus by a real time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction test. Part of this (the Chinese say) is that 75% recover without medical intervention, all that's needed is to isolate them for 4 to 6 weeks. But 25% die without an ICU, and China is overwhelmed, so most of those who died lacked access to an ICU.

Outside China, only one died, and that was in the Philippines, so it's not clear how good the ICU was. About 525 cases outside China, and only 1 death, so a fatality rate of 0.2%, but it's still spreading rapidly, and if it spreads to just about everyone, only a very few will have access to an ICU, and the fatality rate will rise to 2.5% or more (since most of the world lacks China's resources for fighting epidemics: the Chinese can build 1,000-bed hospitals in just 10 days, and can send 10,000 doctors and nurses to regions with a high infection rate to help out until the disease is under control).

The other 'good news' is that China only counts those diagnosed with that real time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction test that identifies the virus, and many with mild cases who never report to the health authorities are undercounted, so the real fatality rate in China is somewhere between 0.2% and 2.5%, with no idea what it really is. A fatality rate of 0.2% is the same as the flu that breaks out every year, and next year, CoViD19 will be in every flu shot worldwide. But it's spreading rapidly, and we might not have a year.

The Red Horseman

Then we have the Thucydides Trap.  Thucydides was a Greek historian who wrote about the war between Athens and Sparta, about a hegemon seeing a rising power who feel they are compelled to go to war with the rising power to stop the rise. There have been many, many Thucydides Trap wars, and another one, resulting in WWIII, is looking more and more likely.

The Powers that Be in the US figure it's getting long past time for WWIII. The US is tearing up all the antinuke treaties it signed back when it knew the USSR had MAD. Today, the 'experts' say no one has MAD any more, the US can totally destroy any other nation without the slightest threat that they can retaliate, because the US military is so much more advanced than anyone else, but that won't last much longer, so the sooner we nuke Russia and China and the DPRK (and Iran prophylactically), the better. There is no proof that Russia interfered in the last election, but the establishment media all agree it's irrefutably proven that they did. They also say that, fortunately, all Putin's nukes are just Photoshop, but we need to strike now before he gets any real ones, and China is still a backward country that might become advanced if we don't do something now.

The plan is that Russia and China know they do not have MAD, so, when ordered to hand control over to the US, both will meekly comply. The US appointed administrators will break up both Russia and China into a bunch  of small, unarmed, powerless states who will never be able to threaten the US.

Sadly, Russia and China still have MAD, would much, much rather not have to use it, but will if forced. 

The establishment media all agree that the Mueller report proved that Russia stole the election and Trump helped. The report does say Russia stole the election, but that there was no proof beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump helped. The media agree that proof beyond a reasonable doubt is an unbelievably high standard of proof, and there is more than enough proof to convince a civil jury if not a criminal jury, and Mueller was probably being polite, when he really had more than enough evidence to convince an honest criminal jury of #NeverTrumps (and everyone who isn't a #NeverTrump is obviously not honest).

Mueller's 'proof' that Russia was guilty was page after page of computer code. Since computer code is as readable as Russian or Chinese to most Americans, they are convinced that Russia was guilty and must be punished. The code actually proves nothing at all, but it's impossible to convince the 50% of American voters who are rabid #NeverTrumps that the code doesn't say 'RUSSIA DID IT!!!'

Democrats and Republicans disagree about some minor stuff, but not about the importance of the US spreading democracy* to the entire world.

*Democracy - a government that does what the US tells them and hands over all the country's natural resources to US corporations in exchange for a little baksheesh for the 1% and nothing at all for the 99%.

 

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Net: I have no idea if it'll be the Red Horseman or the White Horseman. Both seem far too likely. Heck, maybe we'll have both working together to wipe us all out and solve the problem of climate change. And with all the disruption, maybe the Black Horseman will join them, and the Pale Horseman will have more work cut out for him than he's ever had before.

Death of a General

General Soleimani flew from Iran to Baghdad on a scheduled flight to meet the Iraqi prime minister, something Trump had encouraged him to do, making the drone strike very easy.

The General was a terrible enemy of the US, having been responsible for killing thousands of members of the best US ally in the region.

In 2009, Camp Bucca was emptied. The prisoners were given a chance to swear an oath to go to Syria, overthrow the evil elected dictator, and never return to Iraq, and all those who did were released, given money and weapons, and shipped to Syria, where no one heard much  about them until 2011, when they began demanding the removal of the elected dictator. Then, in 2014, they noted that an oath not to cross a fake line drawn by the infidels Sykes and Picot was not binding, and they came back into Iraq, where Obama bombed and killed a very few of them, so they made several very popular and well-viewed YouTube videos with American and British stars.

The peaceful, pro-democracy freedom fighters call themselves IS, the West call them ISIS or ISIL, and Arabs call them Daesh. And the evil General Soleimani kept killing them, and has made it very difficult for them to liberate Syria from the evil dictator and fly their dignified Black Flag over Syria and Lebanon, as the US fervently hopes they will be able to do very soon now that the General who was stopping them has been removed on Trump's orders.

The US fervently hopes that their Black Flag will fly over the Levant and Iran, and maybe Pakistan and Afghanistan, but has said it can never fly over Iraq, because Iraq has too much oil, all of which belongs to the US, so no need to pay Iraqis for oil they do not own, and ISIL has a nasty habit of taxing the places it controls, so it can never have Iraq. But the US will support them strongly to gain full control of the Levant and Iran, which should be very easy now that the US has removed the evil General Soleimani who was the main person stopping ISIL from completing the goals the US set them.

Impeachment 2

It looks very much like Trump will be the very first US president to be Impeached but not acquitted. This does not mean he'll be found guilty: the Republicans in the Senate all appear that, like all the Republicans in the House, they will vote to acquit, and, knowing this, and not wanting Trump to be able to say he was acquitted, the Impeachment will not be given to the Senate, and the Senate cannot vote on the Articles of Impeachment until they are given them by the House. The House has passed two Articles, so Trump is impeached, but if the Articles are not formally handed to the Senate, they cannot try Trump and acquit him, and that's what Speaker Pelosi seems to have decided is best.
This impeachment is different from the two times the Congress considered impeachment in the 20th century. First, there was a burglary of the Democratic National Convention Headquarters at the Watergate Hotel in 1972 that was ordered by the Committee to Reelect the President, or CREEP as it was called. The burglary was reported then ignored in '72, but then the US discovered that Nixon might have ordered the burglary, or might have found out it was CREEP that ordered and paid for it and then failed to report the people responsible for hiring the actual burglars, and this led to an Impeachment Investigation by the House. They discovered that Nixon taped every single word said in the Oval Office, and demanded the tape. Nixon refused, and took the Congressional subpoena to court. He was ordered to hand the tape over, appealed, and it finally ended up in the Supreme Court who ordered Nixon to hand the tape over, so he did. Sort of. 18 minutes were missing.
Eventually, a group of Republicans went to meet with Nixon, told him they could not vote against Impeachment and Conviction, and suggested it would be best to resign, and Nixon did.
In 1998, the intern Lewinsky had saved a blue dress she'd worn when she had sex with Clinton, who had said, under oath, that he had never had sex with her. The House Impeached Clinton just before the '98 Congressional election, and the Republicans lost heavily in that election, which is unusual, because it is usually the party in the White House that loses seats in the mid-term Congressional elections.  After the election, the Senate held a trial where a large majority of the Senators voted that Clinton was innocent as a new-born babe. Some say that, when he denied having sex with Lewinsky, he did it in such a way that it was not technically perjury. Other say that a gentleman never talks about what he has or has not done with a lady, so it is never perjury for a man to deny having had sex.with a woman.
In Nixon's case, everyone knew he was accused of being an accomplice to a burglary, and both Democrats and Republicans were ready to Impeach and convict. In Clinton's case, everyone agreed he'd had sex with Lewinsky and denied it under oath, but all the Democrat and many Republican Senators agreed that was not an offence.
In Trump's case, Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on anything, not what the charges are, not if they are Impeachable offences, nothing.
And the net result is that Trump will be the first president who was Impeached but not Acquitted!

Impeachment 1

Today, the House is expected to Impeach Trump. In some places, an 'impeachment' means the person impeached is forced out of office, but in American English, an impeachment is an indictment, and was originally intended to mean that the House has found probable cause that the office holder has committed High Crimes or Misdemeanours, after which the Senate must hold a trial where both sides present witnesses and where, after a thorough investigation, the Senate adjudges whether the office holder is guilty, and imposes some punishment (usually, removal from office, but the Constitution does not say that has to be the punishment, it could impose some lesser punishment), or that the office holder is not guilty, and so is acquitted and goes back to the duties of the office.

Assuming (and I do) that the House impeaches Trump today, or tomorrow, or Friday, the trial is planned for next year, and most Republicans say they'll vote to acquit. The Senate could just vote not to have a trial, and dismiss the case, but they're now saying most Senators will vote in favour of a trial so that they can declare that Trump is innocent as a new-born babe.

Much more news than when I was young

Growing up, my father took the Sunday New York Times, just for the magazine. The paper didn't arrive until Thursday, so the news was out of date, but the crossword was still one of the best crosswords in the US, and my father enjoyed solving it (with the help of some relatives). We also took a local morning and evening newspaper. Of course, when I was born, most people got their news from the CBS or NBC television network every night. It was on twice, early evening and late evening. Most Americans got the latest news from whichever of the two networks they preferred (I never noticed much difference) and the details in the morning and evening newspapers that had to be local (since the newsboys had to walk, bike, or drive the newspaper to your door, and newspapers from other places wouldn't arrive for four days). The newspapers were all independent, so there were lots of jobs for reporters, jobs that didn't pay much, but it was easy to find a job. And one could find newspapers intended just for Polish Republicans or just for Italian Democrats. There were newspapers whose business model was 'first with the facts' and newspapers with a business model 'tell the people what they want to see' or the business model 'tell them what I want them to think'. So, if one lived in a big city, one might be able to find a 'first with the facts' newspaper. No more.

Today, fewer than 7 huge conglomerates own all the major news outlets in the US. Almost all city newspapers are owned by one of the conglomerates, and the big national newspapers like the New York Times can be remotely printed and delivered to your doorstep the same day it gets delivered in New York city. So there are very few newspaper jobs, they pay better, but everyone must toe the owners' line if they want to keep their job. Facts are never allowed unless they fit the 'tell the people what they want to read' business model. The 'first with the facts' business model doesn't get enough clicks to be profitable.

However.

Back in the day, we read what a great thing the US was doing for Vietnam, Grenada, Panama, Iraq, Yugoslavia, Libya, & etc, rescuing those people from a brutal dictator and drug smuggler who kept the nation mired in abject poverty and giving them a democratic, free, peaceful and prosperous paradise. No one dared contradict that story.

However.

Back in the day, my father had a golfing buddy who was a ham, and he offered to let my mother call my grandmother. He put a lot of time and money into being a ham, with an antenna that he'd somehow managed to attach to the tops of all the trees in his yard, meters long so it would pick up the short wave signals. My mother took me to his place so I could say 'Hello,' to my grandmother. One time when we were there, the ham told me he could listen to the Soviet propaganda channel and hear what they said about the US.

'What do they say?' I asked.

My mother immediately said, 'We're only here to call your grandmother and leave. We don't have time for anything else,' and that was that.

Getting a short wave in the US is expensive and difficult, and I never managed it, but I did want to hear what the Soviets said about the US. I never will, of course, because the Soviets have been gone for 30 years.

But the Internet and satellite TV mean I can hear the official Chinese, Russian, Persian, Qatari, French, and British propaganda channels, in English, without getting a ham license (the official US propaganda channels are all in the languages of the people living in brutal dictatorships* who can't get the 'truth' from their own nation's TV or newspapers).

And the other nations' propaganda channels often have video that contradicts the story in the US news outlets. But every decent American (and the decent members of NATO) will tell you never to believe those channels, even if they have solid proof. Decent folks always accept the official American version without question.

*Brutal dictatorships - governments that do not do exactly what the US Deep State wants them to do