War as a Distraction, but Where?

On 21 August 2018, Trump's lawyer Cohen pleaded guilty to 8 counts, some of which were criminal conspiracy with 'a candidate for president'. Of course, we know which 'candidate for president', making a certain president an unindicted co-conspirator. The Democrats are saying it's the beginning of the end, the impeachment clock is ticking down. As it happens, Alan Dershowitz says that Cohen's confessions do not implicate Trump, while David Jolly says Trump is finished.

It is an old American tradition that, when a president is in trouble, he starts a war to distract the voters and tells them it would endanger the troops to change Commander-in-Chief in the middle of a war. But where? Trump was promising regime change in Iran back in '15, but his Cabinet wants regime change in Syria, Russia, and the DPRK. Iran is screaming 'Mother of all Wars' just like Saddam did, and war with Iran should go like Libya, but might be more like Iraq, whichever way Trump thinks will best distract the voters. Obama was going to win anyway, so a quick victory in Libya worked (and made a lot of money for the US/UK/France), but Bush, sr was not so popular, and, after he finished the First US-Iraq War, the voters said, 'Job well done, but it's done, and now we want Clinton.' So Bush, jr kept the Second US-Iraq War going (and it's still going 9 years after Bush, jr left office).

Candidate Obama said he'd end all the wars, and President Obama did pause the Iraq War briefly, but mostly, President Obama expanded all the wars he inherited, and added some new ones. Candidate Trump ran on ending the wars, but President Trump expanded the ones he inherited, and is in a corner where he needs one or more new ones.

Iran can scream, but they can't do much. Carpet bombing like Libya should force regime change about as quickly as it did in Libya, but ground troops like Iraq might be a better distraction for the voters, so Trump cold go either way. 

However, Trump's Cabinet, France and the UK all want regime change in Syria, which means also in Russia, and the Cabinet would also like to finish what Truman started in the DPRK. Truman, of course, fired his general for suggesting he risk a nuclear war against the only other nuclear power in the world, and one would hope Trump and his Cabinet would learn from Truman, but Trump and his cabinet don't seem capable of learning anything from anyone (and nor do the British and French governments). So they might try Russia and/or the DPRK. Russia might not be as strong as the USSR, but they still have MAD (the New York Times says Russia's MAD WMD are just Photoshop, but they now print whatever their readers want to be true, not necessarily the facts). China did not sit idly by when Truman tried regime change in the DPRK, and they're not going to sit idly by if Trump and his Cabinet try again, not to mention that the DPRK is almost certainly able to execute an EMP strike on the US all by itself.

If the Cabinet, Britain and France convince Trump to start a war anywhere except Iran, it'll be, 'So long, farewell, auf wiedersehen, goodbye.' 

John Perkins and Financial Theory

Suppose you have $200,000 and a bank says it will loan 80% at 10% interest. Further suppose you have an investment that will pay 20%. How much should you borrow from the bank? The textbook answer is, of course, $800,000. You'll pay $80,000 a year in interest, but your investment will pay $200,000 a year. The correct answer is $0. John Perkins job was to convince people to borrow money by promising a 20% return. The banks insisted the money go to the contractors they specified, contractors who built nothing, but who took the $1,000,000, after which, the borrowers had a debt of $800,000 and no way to repay, so the banks foreclosed and got all the assets the borrowers had. With kickbacks from the contractors, the banks got all the borrowers' assets for almost nothing.

Perkins said he did this to Indonesia. After the IMF and World Bank foreclosed, Indonesia had to let mining companies dump toxins in the rivers, so people died. They had to let companies take farms from subsistence farmers to use for cash crops, so people died. Saudi Imams said (quite correctly) that the infidels had killed Muslims, and said (incorrectly) that everyone working in the New York World Trade Center was guilty. Which is why the 9/11 hijackers destroyed the New York World Trade Center. Yes, people were guilty, but the 9/11 hijackers killed few, if any, of the guilty parties, and a lot of people who were completely innocent of the crimes for which they were murdered.

Not clear how to punish the guilty. Perkins said he had no idea who they were, he got his orders (and payment) via a carefully camouflaged trail that hid those ultimately responsible.

So Justice seems unlikely for this world.

Eurasia, Eastasia, and the Ministry of Truth

I read 1984 back in the '60s. Airstrip 1 went back and forth from an ally of Eurasia at war with Eastasia to an ally of Eastasia at war with Eurasia to an ally of ..., and every time they switched, the Ministry of Truth had to fix all the history books and newspaper morgues. If Airstrip 1 was at war with Eurasia and allied with Eastasia, they had always been at war with Eurasia and allied with Eastasia. Only, in the '60s, Eurasia was obviously the USSR, and Eastasia was obviously the PRC, and both were allied against Airstrip 1. It took me 50 years to figure out 1984. Eurasia was the Central Powers of WWI, Germany, Austria, and the Ottoman Empire. Eastasia was Russia/USSR. In the Crimean War, Airstrip 1 allied with France and the Ottomans against Russia. Then in WWI, Airstrip 1 was allied with Russia against the Central Powers. Then, after WWI, Airstrip 1 allied with Hitler against Stalin's USSR. Then, after '41, Airstrip 1 allied with Stalin's USSR against the Axis. Then, after '47, Airstrip 1 allied with West Germany against Stalin's USSR. And every time Airstrip 1 changed it's alliance, it tried to change the history books.

But, after 1939, the Airstrip 1 of 1984 was a neo-colony of the US. After WWI, the US went isolationist, and then came the Great Depression in 1930, with 25% unemployment, and nothing tried by a Republican president, Hoover, or a Democrat president, FDR, had any effect. Finally, two brilliant applied economists named Adolph and Tojo formed the Axis and quickly reduced US unemployment from more than 25% to less than 2%. US history books (incorrectly) blamed the Great Depression on WWI, and correctly credited the Axis with its cure. The collapse of the Axis was predicted to cause a quick return to a situation where only 25% unemployment would be considered practically full employment, and quite unachievable. What to do? Then, in '47, Truman said the USSR was a greater threat than the Axis! The US Congress voted to keep the military mobilised, not disbanded. They voted for the Marshall Plan, chits for Europe they could use to buy American products, food (since their agricultural sector had been badly damaged) and tools for reconstruction, chits that Americans (and only Americans) could cash in for dollars. Truman won re-election (after being so far behind in the polls he'd been written off by the experts). And the Republicans jumped on Truman's bandwagon (even though Truman was a Democrat). The Republicans found USSR spies everywhere. The head of the FBI spoke of card-carrying Communists, dupes, and fellow-travelers. (It annoys me that Hoover's terminology that I had to learn in school has been changed from 'dupes' to 'useful idiots'; why abandon what worked so well for so long?) No Depression, instead the US enjoyed great prosperity.

Then, in 1990, the USSR collapsed. The fact that the USSR had MAD meant the US was limited in what it could do. But now, the US could absorb the Warsaw Pact into NATO. It could destroy Yugoslavia, and the USSR wasn't around to stop it. It could even absorb chunks of the USSR into NATO, and Russia was powerless. After Yugoslavia came Iraq, and the 100 hour war. Then sanctions that killed maybe half a million Iraqis. And Russia had no say. Then came 9/11, and Islam was the new and improved threat, a replacement for the USSR. War in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and lots of other places to keep the US economy from falling back into a Great Depression.

But, in spring 2013, the presidents of the US and France and the UK PM all agreed to force regime change in Syria. For some reason, the UK PM asked Parliament to vote, and they voted 'NO!' And then Putin stepped in and offered to remove all of Syria's WMD, and regime change was left to the Free Syrian Army, whom the Israelis said would quickly achieve victory without the necessity of a major US campaign. By Fall 2013, Russia was back, and would no longer allow regime change in Syria and let its only Mediterranean Naval Base go to NATO.

So the US has moved Russia back to the #1 threat to world peace. Russia has always been the #1 threat to world peace. And US newspapers assure us Russia no longer has MAD. All the Soviet WMD are gone, thanks to the decade when Russia was ruled by a good democratic president installed by the CIA, Yeltsin. Putin's presentation of Russian WMD was just Photoshop. St Hillary promised regime change in Russia starting on Day 1, but Russia stole the election, an atrocity worse than Pearl Harbor. All the US media want immediate regime change in Russia.

Trump ran on a platform of peace with Syria and Russia. The US media, Democrat and Republican, all agree that makes him a traitor. The Democrats say the stolen election should be returned to it's rightful winner, St Hillary. The Republicans say Trump must reform, or be replaced by Pence. So Trump is making some waffling anti-Russian comments.

The world is closer to annihilation than it's ever been. The Concerned Scientists say the Doomsday Clock is 2 minutes to midnight. Pollyannas, those Concerned Scientists.

Evil genius or idiot?

The US establishment media all write that Trump is a Russian agent, an evil genius who is working to destroy the US. The Persian press think Trump is an idiot. He ordered sanctions on Iran (not that Obama ever lifted them: everyone is still warned that it's a violation of US law to do any US dollar transactions with Iran, and Iran is still cut off from the international banking system, so one must bring at least $10,000 in cash if one wants to visit Iran).

Trump added new sanctions on Iran that meant that most EU companies have announced that they have halted all trade with Iran because of the threat that they will be blocked from all trade with the US if they do not. The EU said it's sticking to the JCPOA, but EU companies can't afford to be cut off from the US market: the EU market isn't enough to balance their books without the US market.

China would probably have been forced to join the rest of the world and cut Iran off, forcing Iran back to the 17th century, but Trump has already banned most Chinese products from the US, so China announced that it will be buying most of the oil it needs from Iran, and will sell Iran all that they need. And, given that China is China, that greatly mitigates the US sanctions on Iran, to the point where Iran won't feel much damage from Trump's new sanctions!

Mid-terms

Many are sure the Congress will go solid Blue in '19 after the Democrats sweep the mid-terms. But it's actually not at all clear what will happen. The Democrats are fairly certain to get more votes, just as they did in the 2016 election, but whether those votes will turn into a majority of seats in the Congress is not at all clear. The good Republicans Mr Gerry Mander and Mr James Corvus will do their best to hand the Congress over to the Republicans, even if most of the voters disagree with them. It's not clear how much Mr Gerry Mander and Mr James Corvus will be able to do, and we won't know until 7 Nov this year. The best source is Five Thirty Eight, but so far, they're only predicting that the Democrats are going to win the most votes, they haven't started on seats, yet (but they will as we get closer to the election).

Poker or Bridge?

Trump seems to think he's playing poker with a royal flush in clubs. Only he might be playing bridge, and getting outbid in spades.

Trump thinks the US is an indispensable trading partner to every other nation. So, if he threatens to stop all trade, they have to cave and agree to whatever Trump demands. He might be right. Again, he's playing as if he has a royal flush, but a) it's not clear he's playing poker, and even if he is, b) it's not clear he knows what his hole card is.

The Western media reports massive riots in Iran, that the government is very close to toppling. The official US version, developed by Bush, jr, is that Iran was responsible for the 9/11 attacks, and no Saudi was involved at all. Bush, jr said the Ayatollahs ordered the 9/11 attacks, and they were perpetrated by their co-religionists in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the DPRK. Bush, jr later said he'd missed 3: the 9/11 hijackers also included co-religionists of the Ayatollahs from Libya, Syria, and Cuba. Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya down, Iran, the DPRK, Syria, and Cuba to go.

Clinton promised Saddam lots of investment and sanctions relief for getting rid of all his WMD with inspectors. Saddam fell for it. Bush, jr made the same promise to Muammar, and he also fell for it. Iraq and Libya were 'liberated' and Saddam and Muammar were lynched. Obama made the same promise to Iran, but got a UN Security Council resolution and an agreement of the P5+1 and Iran, an agreement President Hillary would have said Iran was violating (and everyone would have jumped on board) or just forced regime change without bothering to abrogate. But all the media say Trump is only abrogating the agreement because Obama made it (they never said anything about Bush, jr abrogating Clinton's agreement with Saddam, or Obama abrogating Bush, jr's agreement with Muammar, and they would have strongly supported President Clinton's abrogation of the agreement with Iran).

The western media are now saying that Trump's sanctions against Iran are working, and regime change from an internal revolution is imminent; however, eastern media have no reports of any riots in Iran, and China says it will buy Iranian oil disirregardless. If China has to give up all trade with the US in exchange for Iranian oil, it says it will do so. Will China back down? And, with the new US tariffs, China wants to rebuild the Silk Road, with high speed rail connecting all of Eurasia, so Shanghai silks can ship to Cherbourg in less than 24 hours. India has been an enemy of China since the end of the British Empire in '47, but now India is on board the Chinese Silk Road, since it can't see that it has any other choice. And an interconnected Eurasia can get by without the US.

So is Trump getting the US back to the halcyon days of the 19th century when it had very limited trade with the rest of the world? I guess we'll find out.

Trump, the media, and MAD

Every president since Truman wanted a unified Korea, Parked with US military bases all along the Yalu River. Truman would have gotten one, but the PRC and the USSR made it cost more than the US could afford. Every president since Truman tried to convince the DPRK that the US meant no harm, so, if they'd disarm, the US would grant great benefits. All lies, of course, and neither Kim's grandfather, nor father, nor Kim are as gullible as Saddam or Muammar, who agreed to disarm with inspections in exchange for sanctions relief and help developing. Of course, the US presidents all lied, and Saddam and Muammar had their nations 'liberated' and themselves lynched. Clinton promised Kim's grandfather and father lots of money for development if they'd allow inspectors. Kim's father agreed. Clinton had lied, and gave not 1¢, and Bush, jr put the DPRK on the Axis of Evil, responsible for 9/11, and scheduled for regime change. A few days later, Kim's father set off what he said was a nuke. He lied! He said he'd given up all his nukes, and allowed inspectors who'd all been lied to. What could be worse? A terrible dictator who lies! Regime change had to be put on hold for the DPRK, but went ahead in Iraq and Libya, and is now scheduled for Iran. But it's still far too expensive for the US to try regime change in the DPRK.

The US media says Trump was a fool. He agreed to stop the military exercises. Korea impeached Park, a hawk, and elected Moon, who called Kim about peace talks, and Kim sent some athletes to be part of the united Korea team, met with Moon, and scheduled a 2nd meeting. But then military exercises started, and Kim was a no-show. No cancellation, just a no-show when Moon was waiting. It was only after the exercises ended that Kim met Moon (again) and then Trump.

When Kim promised to destroy all his nuke testing facilities, the western media all said: 'They were already destroyed by the last test. He's not destroying anything.' Lots of reporters were allowed into the DPRK as observers. They looked in, saw what looked like a testing facility (but they weren't experts), and saw the facility destroyed. 'All faked,' according to the western media, Kim got Trump to stop working for rapid regime change, which is Trump's #1 job, and destroyed nothing. Trump needs to get back to work. The DPRK can only destroy the RoK, and all the US assets there are a cheap price to pay to keep the US safe. Or so say all the western corporate media.

Kim has proven he has nukes (and, for those who know nuclear physics, he probably has hundreds), and ICBMs that can reach the eastern US. So, if the US tries regime change, Kim can do enough damage to destroy the US economy. He can't totally obliterate the US, leaving the whole place depopulated, but it doesn't take nearly that much for MAD, just enough to completely disrupt the economy. Kim could manage an EMP strike that erases every single bank record, leaving not a trace of any US money inside the US, and also fry all the electric distribution networks, leaving everyone with no electricity at all. That's enough for MAD. The US response would leave absolutely nothing of the Korean peninsula, so Kim would only start MAD if the US shows it's determined to force regime change and make all of Korea a US neo-colony.

But the western media says Kim has just a few nukes, and no way to get any of them to the US (obviously false premises) so Kim does not have MAD. Actually, it's at least a 75% chance that he does.

Of course, when Putin did his demo that Russia still has MAD, the western media said it was all Photoshop. After the evil dictator Gorbachev was replaced by the good, free, democratic leader Yeltsin, the USSR military and industry and education and healthcare were all destroyed, as well they should have been, and Russia could not challenge the US. But in late '13, Putin said Russia was not giving up its bases in Syria. The US has been trying to overthrow the evil Syrian regime that's letting Russians squat on NATO military bases, but Trump is falling down on the job. If only we'd elected St Hillary who promised regime change in Syria and Russia on Day 1, Putin would have known he'd have to step down since no one can face off St Hillary, so he stole the election (with help from Trump). Evidence? No need. Ss Obama and Hillary said so, and they cannot tell a lie, so their word is irrefutable proof, and is clearly justification for regime change in Russia. After all, all the Obamabots have for their creed: 'Obama said it, I believe it, and that settles it.'

And every cockroach strongly supports Ss Obama and Hillary, since the US trying regime change in Russia will leave all us cockroaches safe from being stepped on.