The 2026 State of the Union Address will take place on Tuesday, 24 February.
I heard some experts say that any War on Iran will tend to overshadow and distract people from paying much attention to the State of the Union, something Trump would never allow, so the War must be postponed until at least 25 February, and then take place either that day or very shortly thereafter. Or Trump might expect a great victory, as Great and as Quick as Venezuela, a victory he will be able to brag about during the Address, so the war might start and end with a total and complete US victory before the address, but most of the experts predict it will start shortly after the address and take at least a few weeks, and some predict a year or more.
There are, of course, the second and third Carrier Battle Groups, AKA the second and third Armadas, which have not yet reached a position where they can participate in any initial massive strike on Iran, a strike which is supposed to be so massive that it will take out all the top government officials and most Iranian military assets, leaving Iran unable to make much of a return strike, nothing that can penetrate Israel's Iron Dome, which has been further protected by many Patriot batteries set up in the last few weeks. And if the US are waiting for all the Armadas to arrive, the war will have to be postponed until they arrive, which will be a week or more after the State of the Union Address.
After the first US and/or US-Israeli strike launched from the three Armadas, Iran are supposed to have nothing left that can penetrate the Israeli defences or the defences the US have set up to protect US military assets in West Asia, nothing that can do any damage to the Gulf oil fields, nothing that can mine the Strait of Hormuz and limit the easy travel of Arabian oil to world markets. And with the Ayatollahs all gone, the Shah can be put back in, all Iranian oil, stolen by the Ayatollahs from 1980 until this US military operation, will be returned to the lawful owner (under US/UK/EU law), BP!
And after this victory, the US will be free to concentrate on liberating the Soviet Union from the Communist dictators, and then breaking up the former USSR into many, small, demilitarised countries, with all Soviet oil, gold, and other valuable minerals returned to the rightful owners, Western (mostly American) oiligarchs, as War Reparations.
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Of course, some of the pro-Iranian propaganda channels say the evil PRC and Russia have given some weapons to the Iranians that can stop any US or US/Israeli attack. Iran say, 'That is not true. No one has given us any weapons, we bought them all with our own money.'
In any case, it is not at all clear what kinds of weapons Iran have, except that none are nuclear. They might have hypersonic missiles that can penetrate the defences of the Armada(s) and Israel.
I keep wondering about a) calling it 'three Armadas,' since the term 'Armada' covers all the US naval assets, not just part of them; and b) using the word 'Armada' after what happened to the most famous Armada in (British) history.
The Armada(s) are sure that they are out of range of all Iranian missiles, but it is not clear if that intelligence is correct.
The Iranians also have some stealth submarines, but the US figure they can detect and destroy any submarine that approaches the Armada(s).
There are quite a few commentators on the pro-Iranian propaganda channels who figure the US Armada(s) will do about as well as that last Armada sent to conquer Britain, the hypersonic missiles and stealth submarines will be able to sink much of the Armada(s), and those hypersonic missiles will then do massive damage to Israel, US military bases, the Arabian Gulf oil fields, oil tankers, and Iran will also mine the Strait of Hormuz, possible with mines set never to go off if approached by a PRC tanker with the code that tells the mine, 'Friend, not Foe, don't go off!'
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Net: a lot of people claim to have excellent intelligence about what is about to happen, probably next week starting Wednesday, but we'll have to wait for at least five days before we can be sure.
What does seem likely is that, if the US and/or Israel attack Iran, and that initial strike fails to decapitate all Iranian defences, which then prove rather resilient and formidable, seriously threatening the complete destruction of Israel, then Israel will carpet nuke Iran to take out all Iranian defences. This will, sadly, leave Iranian oil too radioactive for anyone to use, and make oil permanently worth more than $700 a barrel, but at least Israel would be safe from Iran, and could start concentrating on taking out Türkiye. After all, Israel were promised all the land from the Euphrates to the wadi, and, the Zionists have a new and greatly improved definition of wadi from the ancient Hebrew meaning, saying it means the River Nile, so Israel goes from the northernmost tip of the Euphrates to the southernmost tip of the Nile, and the Turks need to find someplace else to live, as do all the West Asian Arabs.
But we aren't sure what, exactly, it will take to convince Israel that they have reached a situation that necessitates the use of their nuclear arsenal, or if the Iranian response to an attack by the US and/or Israel would be such a situation.
Looks like some very interesting weeks ahead.
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